Shake-up at the Ministry

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Shake-up at the Ministry

Post  Elanor on Sat May 21, 2011 3:09 am

Shake-up at the Ministry

This topic serves as an archive of a thread from the Harry Potter Lexicon Forum as hosted on World Crossing which ceased operation on April 15, 2011. Elanor

Prefect Marcus - Mar 4, 2004 2:44 pm
Edited by Kip Carter Aug 30, 2007 5:15 am
JKR just revealed in her Chat that there will be a new Minister of Magic in the next book.

Question #1: Whom will it be?

I do not think it will be Arthur Weasley. As much as I like him, he is really only a very junior offical. Perhaps Madame Bones?

Question #2: What happens to Percy?

I think Percy is going to be totally discredited and out on his ear. He hitched (sorry - Welded) his wagon to the wrong star. Assuming that the magic community chooses a decent Minister, he isn't going to want that little toady around, or will s/he?

Question #3: What happens to Dolores Umbridge?

I suspect she will have criminal charges brought against her.

Question #4: What happens to Arthur Weasley?

He might get a promotion, but don't hold your breath. Prejudices run deep. He loves Muggles too much. Of course, he might get promoted to Muggle Affairs, or something similar.

Question #5: Will the new Minister be still jealous and suspicious of Dumbledore?

Could be. As I said, Prejudices and human nature run deep.

What are your thoughts on the subject?



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Shake-up at the Ministry (Post 1 to 50)

Post  Elanor on Sat May 21, 2011 3:13 am

Loopy Lupin - Mar 4, 2004 3:10 pm (#1 of 410)
Marcus,

I think Fudge's ouster will be a plot line in the next book in which Fudge will be out one way or another by the end of the book. Many wizards must be furious at Fudge's 180 degree turnaround about Voldie's return. If he's not removed by a "recall" election (or maybe a vote of "no confidence" is their a Wizard parliament?), maybe he gets assassinated by Voldemort.

I agree that Weasley wouldn't get elected and it will probably be one of the elders from the Wizengamot. Of course, most people would probably be begging Dumbledore to do it, but he'll want to stay near Harry at Hogwarts, so maybe they'll let Dumbledore choose and he'll choose Arthur.

Assuming Fudge is removed by a vote-type deal, everyone associated with him will probably get the boot as well. So, Percy will have to return to the Weasleys and beg forgiveness.

Umbridge should have charges brought against her. I'm sure that everyone would love to see that "on screen," so to speak, but unless its somehow important to Book 6, JKR will probably just tell us what happened to her.

I don't think that the next minister will be at odds with Dumbledore in any sense. The Wizarding world has just learned that Dumbledore was right all along. So, even though I doubt Dumbledore will be the next minister, I believe that he will sort of be calling the shots from behind the scenes.

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Chris. - Mar 4, 2004 4:43 pm (#2 of 410)

HBP: 16th July 2005: the most anticipated day in history
I was thinking if Fudge gets assassinated by Voldemort, that Madame Bones would take over.

Maybe she would get AK'd herself, leaving everyone scared to take the position but Arthur?

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alexa - Mar 4, 2004 6:15 pm (#3 of 410)

Just listing out the personnel in MOM from the lexicon: (excluding those deceased, disappeared and death eaters (3Ds))-

Basil - Transportation
Bob - Dept. for Care and Control of Magical Creatures (?)
Amelia Bones - Head of Dept. of Law Enforcement
Croaker - "Unspeakable," Mysteries
Cornelius Fudge - Minister of Magic
Amos Diggory - Dept. for Care and Control of Magical Creatures
Mafalda Hopkirk - Improper Use of Magic
Eric Munch - watchwizard
Cuthbert Mockridge - Goblin Liaison
Arnold Peasgood - Obliviator
Perkins - Misuse of Muggle Artifacts
Kingsley Shaklebolt - Auror
Nymphadora Tonks - Auror
Dawlish - Auror
Dolores Umbridge - assistant to the Minister of Magic
Arthur Weasley - head, Misuse of Muggle Artifacts
Percy Weasley - International Cooperation, promoted to Junior Assistant to the Minister of Magic (1995)
Gilbert Whimple - Experimental Charms
Madam Edgecombe - Floo Network Office (OP27)

Looking at the list, I guess the two heads, Amelia Bones and Arthur Weasley are the better contestants for the post of Minister of Magic.

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Julia. - Mar 4, 2004 7:47 pm (#4 of 410)

74% obsessed! Uconn Jew Crew says: is it August yet?
I think you're right Alexa. My vote goes to Arthur, but if that doesn't happen, then my second vote goes to Amelia. I read somewhere (although I can't remember where at the moment, I'm pretty sure it was on one of the threads here) that Amelia would make a good Minister of Magic. If she does get the job, then perhaps Arthur will be promoted to head of the Department of Magical Law Enforcment'

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Luanee - Mar 4, 2004 11:19 pm (#5 of 410)

I will pick Amelia too. After all, it is time for a female MoM member to redeem the image of the fairer sex (yucks to Umbridge).

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Hem Hem - Mar 4, 2004 11:35 pm (#6 of 410)

Three other names that should at least be considered weren't on that list...they're wizengamot members instead of MoM members, but they seem to have a lot of general respect in the wizarding community: Griselda Marchbanks, Tofty, and Tiberius Ogden. Of the three, the only one that I would really consider is Ogden. He was mentioned twice in OotP, and he may not be as old and decrepit as the other two.

I think that when Fudge falls from the top, Percy will almost certainly go down with him. Umbridge will probably suffer the very same fate. After the Ministry of magic was deceiving the entire wizarding community and giving Voldemort additional room to cake hold, how can the general public respond in any other way than to be violently opposed to any old Fudge supporter?

Most citizens of the wizarding world shouldb e able to maintain there reputations by merely denying that they ever had true support for Fudge's regime. However, Percy and Umbridge have no such "out."

Oh, and back to who'll be Minister, Bones is my best bet. The thing is, she may not become innaugurated until some point much later than the start of book six. I belive the wording of the question in the chat was if there'd be a new Minister at some point in the next books.

Edit: Luanee, be happy to hear that JKR has included some very accomplished witches in high political positions in wizarding history. One of the most "enlightened" heads of the wizard council that preceded the MoM was none other than Elfrida Clagg -- definately a woman.

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Czarina - Mar 5, 2004 8:59 am (#7 of 410)

Umbridge definitely will go down with Fudge. Think of all the nasty stories that students will tell their parents over the holidays?

Percy, on the other hand, was promoted rather young to the position of Junior Assistant. He served as Crouch's assistant and Fudge definitely saw the potential in this adept (but gullible), eager-to-please young man. What nineteen-year-old would pass up the chance to be Junior Assistant to the Minister? I think Percy will definitely be demoted -- perhaps to serve under Arthur (ha!)? But I don't think he'll be booted out entirely.

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haymoni - Mar 5, 2004 12:17 pm (#8 of 410)

I don't think Fudge saw potential in Percy - He saw him as a way to get to Arthur.

Fudge is a sad, paranoid little man. He'll probably bluster his way through Book 6, but will lose popularity with the war. People will blame him for not listening to Dumbledore sooner to avoid the war.

Hence, a new MOM will be in. I like the idea of Madame Bones being the MOM.

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Thom Matheson - Mar 6, 2004 7:32 am (#9 of 410)

"I pledge to bring a pie to every pot". "I will put an end to regurgitating toilets". This was a paid political announcement for the campaign to elect Arthur Weasley

ARTHUR, ARTHUR, ARTHUR (sound of thunderous applause) Arthur, Arthur, he's our man, if he can't do it nobody can.

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Choices - Mar 6, 2004 10:28 am (#10 of 410)

*Completely Obsessed With Harry Potter*
Arthur's got my vote. I think he'll make a wonderful MOM!! Plus, he would be in a great position to rub it in to Percy that Dumbledore and the rest of the Weasleys were right about Voldemort. LOL

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Julia. - Mar 6, 2004 8:46 pm (#11 of 410)

74% obsessed! Uconn Jew Crew says: is it August yet?
Wow, Thom, how do you really feel about it? You're right, Arthur would make an outstanding Minister of Magic. He knows everyone there, and, as whitnessed at the Quidditch World Cup, everyone likes him (the Malfoy's excluded). I would love to see him as MoM. ARTHUR FOR MINISTER!!!

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Jo S - Mar 6, 2004 11:46 pm (#12 of 410)

In the interview, JKR states that the Wizarding World will be at war with itself. So here is my theory (Im half thinking as I go): Voldemort will use his henchmen to stage a coup at the MOM with Malfoy as the new Minister of Magic. (Draco is going to be insufferable) Fudge is going to pretty much step aside (to save his own neck ie there is nothing worse than death) in his belief that the general wizarding population will rise up in support of him and return him to his "rightful" position. Naturally enough, he is wrong.

As a result of his poor leadership during the previous year, the general wizarding population, whilst not supporting Voldemort/Malfoy, will not back Fudge either. Civil war breaks out and as there is no one clear contender to lead the population against Voldemort, chaos reigns.

Eventually Dumbledore steps in, puts his weight behind someone, possibly madame Bones. However the length of time it has taken for the wizarding world to get organised to fight Voldemort, means that Voldemort has had more time than ever to recruit people to his side.

So by the end of book 6, the wizard world is set for a great good versus evil style battle. I cant wait to see if Im right!

P.S. As much as I love Arthur Weasley I dont think that he is the right person for the job. He is too junior at the Ministry.

PPS. If Madame Bones becomes Minister it would explain why Susan Bones played a slightly more important role in OoP

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Anna L. Black - Mar 7, 2004 5:05 am (#13 of 410)

The only problem with this is that Malfoy is in Azkaban right now...

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Chris. - Mar 7, 2004 7:12 am (#14 of 410)

HBP: 16th July 2005: the most anticipated day in history
Anna, but the Dementors have left their ranks at Azkaban. Soon enough, the Death Eaters will join Voldy again.

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Blast - Mar 7, 2004 8:13 am (#15 of 410)

I think I'm back!
Fudge I think will be ousted because of his assosiation with Malfoy. As Harry said everyone now knows what a scumbag he really is. Now the truth is out, the MoM, must unify to fight. Since the D.E.,s that were captured were some of the people that wormed their way out the last time, anybody that similarily escaped punishment the last time will be suspect. As for the new Minister very few people might want it given the situation. I must say it will have to be a very strong witch or wizard who takes over. As for Percy, did not Voldemort tell Harry that there is no good or evil only power and those too week to seek it. Percy seems to fit this to a tee. He might drop from his position but is clever enough and ambitiuos enough to claw his way up again on either side. As for the OoP they will not allie themselves with the MoM. They didn't the last time and won't this time either, but they might gain some valuable members. The next minister must also look at the WWs view of the way they treat magical creatures a new Wizarding World must emerge this time or they stand to repeat history over.

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Thom Matheson - Mar 8, 2004 9:27 am (#16 of 410)

Jo, good stuff, but my rebuttal is that like Bones, Arthur is "Head" of the department, just as Bones is. It just seems that whenever there is a problem, just like the ghostbusters, they always call on Arthur. He is a problem solver, is well liked on both sides of the isle and he has the ability to unify the Ministry and the population. His training with Muggles tells me he is a polished negotiator. And besides that, he is cool, and deserves a break.

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Choices - Mar 8, 2004 11:03 am (#17 of 410)

*Completely Obsessed With Harry Potter*
Well said Thom! I agree - Arthur would make a wonderful MOM. He is well liked enough to be given tickets to the Quidditch World Cup that placed him and his kids in the top box with all the big-wigs from the Ministry. I think it has also been said that he prefers to remain in his Muggle Relations department because that is where he is happiest. Sounds like he has passed up promotions to remain where he is. Also, we have to consider Ron's comment that they had as much chance of winning the Quidditch Cup as his Dad had of becoming MOM......well, they won, so I see Arthur becoming MOM in the future.

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Chris. - Mar 8, 2004 11:30 am (#18 of 410)

HBP: 16th July 2005: the most anticipated day in history
If Amelia Bones becomes MoM, Arthur could take her place in being Head of Department of Magical Law Enforcement. I'm sure that would do Arthur fine. But I think he's going become the MoM.

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haymoni - Mar 8, 2004 12:02 pm (#19 of 410)

Molly states that Arthur was treated poorly by Fudge because of his love of Muggles. It doesn't mean that the rest of the Ministry feels that way. Every wizard Arthur came in contact with at the World Cup seemed to like him.

Maybe Arthur's expertise with things Muggle will be why he becomes MOM. In the recent chat, JKR says that Muggles will notice things due to the war. Maybe Arthur will be contacting the Prime Minister as Fudge did with Black's escape.

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urzafyffe - Mar 8, 2004 3:03 pm (#20 of 410)

Well if I remember right Ron was joking about the Qudditch Cup so that give Arthur a high chance to become Minister.

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Merlin's Beard - Mar 8, 2004 8:45 pm (#21 of 410)

Because of Ron's comment, I've always assumed that Arthur will become the Minister of Magic, but for some reason, I 've felt that it wouldn't come until the end of the series.

It seems to me that there are still too many wizards in the Ministry who share Fudge's anti-muggle, pro-pure blood bias and I don't see that changing until the upcoming war plays itself out.

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Jo S - Mar 8, 2004 11:18 pm (#22 of 410)

Thom, I dont think that Arthur is on the same level of seniority as Amelia Bones. Amelia is the head of a department. Arthur is in charge of the Misuse of Muggle Artefacts office, (not the whole department) but I dont think it is a very high ranking job. Look at his office, which is shabby little room. Also he has just one staff member, who from memory is an old warlock named Perkins. I get the feeling that Perkins is only there to serve his time till retirement as the ministry has no where better for him.

I agree that Arthur is popular and well liked (well whats not to like, he is a nice guy), but aside from a few exploding toilets and Mad eye Moody, He has hardly being doing major problem solving.

I get the feeling that the Wizarding community is not that large (the size of a medium town eg 5000-10000. Given this many people will have heard of the Weasleys even if they dont know him personally. Also his family have been wizarding for generations.

I agree he is cool, but I am not even sure that he would like to be Minister for magic. He is a bit of a bumbler (int he nicest sense), and I am not sure that a career in politics would suit his personality. Eg Ron tells Harry that his dad could have got heaps of promotions, he just likes where he is. I know Ron is being defensive but I think there is an element of truth to this. Arthur loves muggles and playing with muggle items. What better place to do this than in the misuse of muggle artefacts office.
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Jenny M. - Mar 9, 2004 12:02 am (#23 of 410)

Perhaps he'll be promoted to head of the Department of Muggle Affairs?

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alexa - Mar 9, 2004 1:00 am (#24 of 410)

Since I couldn't find a Fudge's thread, I will take some of my comments in Percy's thread to here.

I was thinking what would happen to Fudge if he were kicked out as Minister of Magic. Well, I believe that,he will join Voldemort. Fudge is power hungry, and if Dumbledore and his supporters strip his power, where else could he go except to join Voldemort? I cannot believe he will be willing to stand by and let Dumbledore 'destroy' everything that he has built up in the past, so what's a better way to get back at Dumbledore? By joining the enemy.

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Tomoé - Mar 9, 2004 7:21 am (#25 of 410)

Back in business
Question #1: Whom will be Minister?

We know very little about how they change the Minister, is he elected by all the wizards and witches of age, named by the Wizengamot? I don't think it would be a not yet named character, so I'm betting on Madam Bones.

Question #2: What happens to Percy?

Percy will have a brand new job in the ministry, a lower one this time. He will fell ashamed his name is now associated with Fudge crowd, so he will work as hard as he can, like he did with the cauldron thickness regulation. His good work will help him to gain back his confidence until he overdo it and mess every thing up yet again. ^_^

Question #3: What happens to Dolores Umbridge?

We will see her again, maybe Susan Bones will tell her aunt what took place when Umbridge was the High Inquisitor in Hogwarts, a inquiry will take place and a trial will follow.

Question #4: What happens to Arthur Weasley?

As JKR said, "as book six shows, the Muggles are noticing more and more odd happenings now that Voldemort's back." Dept. of Magical Accidents and Catastrophes and Dept. of Magical Law Enforcement (Madam Bones and Arthur dept.) should have extra work in the books to come.

If Madam Bones become the Minister, someone will have to take her post as the Head of the Dept. of Magical Law Enforcement in a middle of a war. I'm not sure many people will be keen to take the position, not after what happen to the last wartime head, Crouch Sr. Maybe Arthur will take it, not on his own, but because other people in the dept. will ask him to do so. He's one of the few who openly said Voldemort was back, he was around for a long time already, people from all over the ministry seem to know him (Madam Bones said "Morning, Arthur" not Mr Weasley, Arthur and Crouch and Bagman who show up to his tent in the Quidditch World Cup). Maybe his sense of duty will take over and he will take the head post because no one else have what it take to do it in wartime. Arthur will become Minister after Madam Bones, like Ron foretell it.

Question #5: Will the new Minister be still jealous and suspicious of Dumbledore?

Jealous, no, suspicious, likely if DD stick to his rules-does-not-apply-in-emergency attitude.

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Thom Matheson - Mar 9, 2004 2:16 pm (#26 of 410)

Regarding Fudge going to Voldemort, I don't see that happening at this point. He wouldn't leave the office without the Dementor escorts for Serius, so I doubt that he would screw up the courage to go asking for a Voldemort handout.

All you guys raise great points about Madame Bones, but(yes you all knew I would have a but in there) The only reference that I can remember to a new MOM was the Barty Crouch to Fudge thing and as I recall there was some sort of election. Most probably the Wizengamot as that is the only governing body that meets that I am aware of. Dumbledore is the head, restored. There had to be a bunch of geez we are sorry to DD from them when Fudge talked them into removing him that I am sure that his nominee would carry weight. Serious weight. Just as was the case when the Governors removed DD as Headmaster, when he came back it was so much the sorry but it was Malfoy's fault. Remember he was brought back because of a Weasley being in trouble.

Who can align with and relate with DD in an all out war better then Arthur. He's well liked by all except the Dark siders. Fudge's vote won't mean spit.

Arthur would have the Order behind him, Dumbledore behind him, The Goblins, thru Bill, and of course Hogwarts. Remember at the O.W.L.s how all the old school testers were worried for DD. They will solidly get behind Arthur for DD.

Lastly I believe that the coming war will be the all out second war. Muggles will be involved, and there is no better voice for the WW like Arthur to intergrate the populations. Arthur is no dummy, and I believe he is very astute and I believe very well connected to the pulse of the Ministry. How else was he the first owl that Harry got after the Dementor attack while in the Dursley's kitchen?

All my joking aside, I feel that Arthur is an extremely valuable candidate for the job, and we can't overlook him. We know very little about Amelia Bones other the the Job she has, not necessarily what see is like. I can't see Rowling bringing in a stranger at this late date.

forget the 2 knuts worth, I'll just chuck in the whole Gallion

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Prefect Marcus - Mar 9, 2004 2:30 pm (#27 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
Thom, sincerity does not a successful leader make. Otherwise Jimmy Carter would be considered a successful President, not just a successful ex-President.

If your scenario plays out, then Arthur Weasley would be little more than a puppet Minister of Magic. Dumbledore would be the real power behind the throne. I doubt Dumbledore would want that. I doubt Dumbledore would want even the appearance of that. He doesn't want the job, nor the power, nor the responsibility. All he wants is a pair of warm socks!

No, the new Minister of Magic will need to be powerful in their own right.

Marcus

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Tomoé - Mar 9, 2004 3:14 pm (#28 of 410)

Back in business
Tonks said Madam Bones is fair, we know she didn't stop to talk to Arthur even if the Ministry strongly encourage not to do so. She was impressed by Harry's patronus, enough to tell her niece about it, she was doubtful of Mrs Figg physical description of the Dementors.

Sound to me like she gives everyone a fair chance, has a lot of common sense and is not afraid to let others what she thinks.

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Thom Matheson - Mar 9, 2004 6:44 pm (#29 of 410)

Marcus, and Tomoe, Of course you are both right with your points, darn it. I still want Arthur though. I would like to see Lucius suck up to Arthur with a few pieces of gold. What a moment. And Draco having to suck up to Ron. Can you imagine?

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Jo S - Mar 9, 2004 10:59 pm (#30 of 410)

Before OoP was publiched it was let out that hte next DADA teacher would be a female with a personality like poisonous honey, (or similar). At the time I thought that it would be Rita Skeeter, but of course I was Wrong. However if you look at how JKR uses new characters to expand her stories, She never uses the most obvious choice. Which is why I dont think Arthur will be minister for magic. He is too obvious in the story. Incidentally, I love Molly but she doesnt strike me as 1st lady of magic material.

Sorry about my typing and poor train of thought. I am heaps tired

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prof sprout - Mar 10, 2004 5:43 pm (#31 of 410)

I'm surprised no one has mentioned Kingsley for MOM. He seems like a sharp cookie.

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Prefect Marcus - Mar 10, 2004 6:01 pm (#32 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
Kingsley IS a possiblity. However, Rowling takes a great deal of pain to assure a balance of gender in positions of authority. It's a woman's turn for the top-job. Sorry.

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Gina R Snape - Mar 10, 2004 7:49 pm (#33 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Prefect Marcus, it is nice to see you posting again.

I agree with everyone before me who said that Amelia Bones will be the next Minister for Magic, and Arthur will be promoted to her current position. As likeable as Arthur may be, he is not leadership material to that extent, and does not have the extensive experience Amelia has.

Percy is young and foolish, and will probably be seen as young and foolish. I've no doubt he'll be eating plenty of humble pie at the ministry and with his family. But he won't have lost his job. I think he'll be demoted.

As for Umbridge, I don't think she'll be brought up on high charges. I got the sense she was fairly incapacitated by the end of OoP. She might wind up a permanent resident of St. Mungo's. I think she is out of commission, so to speak.

Fudge will be publicly humiliated, I believe. Not only did his persistent denial allow Voldemort to return, but his unwatchful eye allowed ministry officials be employed by Death Eaters. And then there is his well-known association with Malfoy. I think people will be out for blood and he will flee. Maybe he'll join Karkaroff in Bulgaria! (No, just kidding on that last one). But I do see him shrinking away quietly somewhere and waiting 10 years before writing a book and doing a lecture tour...

DD never wanted to be Minister for Magic before, and he won't want to be one now. But I do think his opinion about who ought to be Minister will be heeded by many who possess the power to vote/appoint the Minister. And although I see the Ministry head and DD working cooperatively, I still see the Order operating as a secret order.

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FCBarca - Mar 11, 2004 9:59 am (#34 of 410)

I'm saying Dumbledore. No reason why he can't be at Hogwarts, while doing his 'Minister' stuff. I believe he wouldn't turn it down a second time, as everyone will be pleading for Dumbledore to take over. Dumbledore was as good as the Minister last time, in Fudge's early days in charge.

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Prefect Marcus - Mar 11, 2004 10:06 am (#35 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
Dumbledore doesn't want the job. All he wants is a pair of nice warm socks.

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FCBarca - Mar 11, 2004 10:23 am (#36 of 410)

Correction, he didn't want the job last time. That could all change now. I'm not saying he will accept it if offered, but it would be interesting if he did take it. I believe if he's offered it, he will take it.

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Prefect Marcus - Mar 11, 2004 11:08 am (#37 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
I don't see Dumbledore giving up Hogwarts when there is somebody else capable of handling the Ministry Job.

Madame Bones has years of experience as the Head of Magical Law Enforcement. She knows the WW's security apparatus backwards and forewards. She is highly respected by all factions. She knows the levers of power, the ins and outs of the Ministry. Dumbledore, though brilliant, has devouted his life to Hogwarts. He doesn't have half the experience of Madame Bones in these areas.

To put it bluntly, why should he give up what he is best at, to take a job that he is not interested in, nor is he trained for; when there is somebody else fully qualified just sitting there?

In war, you have to make the maximum of your resources. Why waste Dumbledore at the Minister job when someone else can do the job?

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Choices - Mar 11, 2004 11:15 am (#38 of 410)

*Completely Obsessed With Harry Potter*
I agree! Plus, I think Dumbledore is too honest and decent to get mixed up in politics. He is a wonderful headmaster and he is old - I think he needs to stay at Hogwarts and oversee Harry's continuing education and preparation for battle with Voldemort. With his great love for the boy, I see him devoting the rest of his time to being there for Harry and taking care of him.

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FCBarca - Mar 11, 2004 11:42 am (#39 of 410)

My point was that he wouldn't necessarily have to give up the job at Hogwarts to be Minister for Magic. I believe that it is a waste for Dumbledore being just Headmaster at Hogwarts. Voldemort would want to take over the Ministry more than take over Hogwarts.

There isn't that much for Dumbledore to do at Hogwarts, if anything. So, I believe if he is asked to take over at the Ministry as well as be Headmaster of Hogwarts, he will accept. Being Minister in a time of crisis means that you only need to focus on the crisis. All the other stuff can wait. So it won't be a tiring job for Dumbledore, having two jobs. I don't think the magical community would want anyone but Dumbledore in charge.

Remember, that there was no reason for Dumbledore to take the job last time, as Voldemort had 'gone'. This time, the magical community would feel a lot safer if Dumbledore was in charge. Undoubtedly, that was why they wanted him in charge last time. I'm not saying he will get the job, my point is that if he is asked, he may. He certainly won't apply for it, that's for sure.

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Prefect Marcus - Mar 11, 2004 12:27 pm (#40 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
Okay, I can see Dumbledore reluctantly taking the job if there was absolutely nobody else, but the fact is that there is at least one other perfectly qualified candidate -- Madame Bones.

Don't you think that the Daily Prophet would trumpet the fact that Dumbledore fully and completely supported Madame Bones? They would likely also print that Dumbledore would be part of the new Minister's council -- offical or otherwise. Would that not help calm the masses?

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Tomoé - Mar 11, 2004 12:38 pm (#41 of 410)

Back in business
Mafalda Hopkirk could take the post as well, she is in the Dept. of Magical Law Enforcement, Improper Use of Magic Office. She's also a woman and could be a surprise candidate for the Minister post.

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Czarina - Mar 11, 2004 12:42 pm (#42 of 410)

Dumbledore might become the TEMPORARY Minister for Magic due to the war. Madam Bones might become the official Minister, but relinquish some of her power to Dumbledore, who is reknowned for defeated Grindelwald. He also led the Order during VWI, so he could come back as the mastermind in VWII. There's something to be said for experience. It wouldn't be a question so much of Dumbledore WANTING the post, but that he would be forced to accept it. He wouldn't have to leave Hogwarts at all -- the school is reportedly the safest place in the wizarding world. Granted, that might invite an attack from Voldemort and put the students in danger, so Madam Bones might remain the official Minister to outsiders. Dumbledore would call the shots from the wings (to borrow and jumble some cliches).

Dumbledore is akin to an aged, retired veteran general in the muggle world. He would be welcomed back to aid the Minister in a new time of crisis. Magic doesn't change as fast as muggle technology, either, so his tactics would be less outdated. Which DOES bring to mind the fact that some tactics inevitably WOULD be outdated, such as keeping Harry in the dark. He learned from that lesson.

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haymoni - Mar 11, 2004 1:34 pm (#43 of 410)

Maybe Dumbledore can actually do more as part of the Wizengamut. (oh help me on the spelling!!)

I really don't think he would enjoy the day-to-day politics. ("Another report on cauldron thickness?!!?)

As JKR has said about Harry - Dumbledore has seen too much action.

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Detail Seeker - Mar 11, 2004 2:07 pm (#44 of 410)

Quod tempus non sanat, sanat ferrum,... so prepare
In Hogwarts, Dumbledore is pretty self sufficient and has just to coordinate his teachers, some more, some less, and his students. It is an aparatus, he knows. The Ministry is a gigantic apparatus with departments working against each other since times known or unknown - much like a muggle mimistry, too. So why should Dumbledore wish to waste his time in such an unefficient way ? Somebody from the Ministr, who knows, how it works, will do better there. So, if you can´t abolish the Ministry, let it work for itself and do the jobs needed on your own - that seems to be Dumbledore´s attitude - and therefor the Order exists. And so, I think, it will remain.

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FCBarca - Mar 11, 2004 4:22 pm (#45 of 410)

I think Dumbledore knows a lot about the Ministry. He is probably nearly always there (maybe that is what he does, instead of pacing his study. )

The problem, Detail Seeker, is that the Ministry, when Fudge goes, will probably be in disarray. So, who better than Dumbledore to settle it down? It is unlikely Dumbledore will become the next Minister, but there is a chance, even if it is only slight.

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Tomoé - Mar 11, 2004 5:23 pm (#46 of 410)

Back in business
I'm with Detail Seeker, Dumbledore act much more freely as the Head of the Order of the Phoenix that as the Minister for Magic. He will be drown in papers, reports, dept. fight and bureaucracy. That will be the surest way for Voldemort to win, indeed. As long as the Minister listen to what Dumbledore says and take care of the details, everything will be all right

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Iverson Godfrey - Mar 11, 2004 6:07 pm (#47 of 410)

Harry Potter fan since 2002
I do not think Dumbledore will be the next minister. He has more important things to worry about.

If the next MoM is going to be an existing character, I believe it will be Madame Bones or Arthur Weasley and I give Madame Bones an edge because she is the head of her department and a member of the Wizengamut(sp?).

I also lean against Arthur for the job because, while MoM is certainly an important position in the WW, I don't think it is going to be the most important thing Arthur could be doing in the next two books.

I think it is unlikely that a new MoM would relenquish any power to another person temporarily due to the war. I think it is more likely that there will be some sort of cabinet, or intellignece committee (maybe the OP might serve in this capacity)that would be created to deal with the situation at hand. There must be a protocol for this, since they've faced this particular challenge before.

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Luanee - Mar 12, 2004 1:45 am (#48 of 410)

Yes Tomoe, I did thought of Mafalda Hopkirk too. And I was thinking she may be the next surprise DADA teacher...

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Gina R Snape - Mar 12, 2004 9:05 am (#49 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Well, I was rereading GoF last night, and it struck me that Crouch was the former Head of the Dept. of Magical Law Enforcement and he was slated to be the next Minister for Magic until the upset with his son. So, I think that sets a kind of precedent, setting the stage for Amelia Bones to be the next Minister.

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haymoni - Mar 12, 2004 9:48 am (#50 of 410)

What was Fudge before he became MOM?

I always thought it funny that his last name was "Fudge". - someone who would "fudge things up".

"Cornelius" isn't too great either - "Corny" for short?

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Shake-up at the Ministry (Post 51 to 100)

Post  Elanor on Sat May 21, 2011 3:14 am

FCBarca - Mar 12, 2004 9:54 am (#51 of 410)
He was in that Catastrophes Department.

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haymoni - Mar 12, 2004 10:58 am (#52 of 410)

Even better!

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Sharker11 - Mar 12, 2004 3:41 pm (#53 of 410)

Well, I think it would make be extremely bad story-telling to make Albus Minister and Headmaster at the same time. It also appears that him doing both would create rather large...conflict of interest. I really don't see Albus becoming Minister as any better a plot then making Arther minister.

Hogwarts also appears to be a rather horribly UNSAFE place to be. Big V just never had a reason such as Harry to try and take it, in the last war. Strategy dictates that he NOT go on a head-to-head battle unless necessary, Big V appears not to be the brightest person, but he is not that stupid.

Logically, Harry was probably the main reason he didn't take the Minister post before, as he needed to be around when Harry went to school. (LOL...I just realized what I wrote has one major problem...He is never really around anyway.) I don't think that has changed.

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Jo S - Mar 13, 2004 2:28 am (#54 of 410)

We are all forgetting one other reason why Dumbledore wont become MoM. He is too concerned in Harry. I think we all agree that there is more to Dumbledores relationship with Harry than we have been told so far. (I mean he isnt as interested in Neville, who has a similar background in many ways). Dumbledore is constantly keeping an eye on Harry as he says in OoP. I dont think he will leave Harry now, when it seems likely that Harry will have to have his show down with Voldemort soon. I do not think it is possible for him to be both Minister of Magic and Headmaster. It goes against everything he was fighting for in OoP. ie keeping the MoM out of Hogwarts. Also being Headmaster of a School is a pretty full on job, even for Dumbledore.

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Gina R Snape - Mar 13, 2004 10:02 am (#55 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
I agree. DD seems to run Hogwarts effortlessly because he is good at it. Just look at how quickly everything fell apart when Umbridge 'took over' at the end of OoP.

Regardless of how much management talent DD has, running a school like Hogwarts is still an effort. We know they have complaints and policies and staff meetings and curriculum revisions and people being hired and fired, etc. There are safety, fiscal and operational procedures, plus 'program planning' (planning for Halloween, coordinating for children left behind at Christmas, managing the house elves...) The list could go on of things DD is tending to or overseeing, which Harry doesn't know or think about, so we don't see DD doing his job at Hogwarts.

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FCBarca - Mar 13, 2004 11:32 am (#56 of 410)

"Big V appears not to be the brightest person"

Interesting. Wouldn't you call creating a spell, thinking of a genius plan to get Harry to the graveyard, right under Dumbledore's nose, and having a 'knowledge of spells' unlike any other wizard alive (except Dumbledore, maybe) as being bright. Or writing a diary containing himself that manages to lead someone in opening the CoS, at the age of sixteen? Or causing a fear like he has caused, because he is so powerful?

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Gina R Snape - Mar 13, 2004 8:00 pm (#57 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
I think the DL has an above-average mastery of wizardry, but a poor sense of planning. He sets up these incredible and elaborate schemes, and then fails every time in the end (at least as long as Harry has been around). Perhaps it's just hubris when he's in direct combat or closest to his goal.

I wonder if security will be any tighter at the ministry, after the end of OoP.

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Sharker11 - Mar 14, 2004 12:40 am (#58 of 410)

FCBarca, hmmmm....You took that slightly out of context. I have no doubt he has done great things...terrible, but great. But, he is a sterotypical evil over lord. He just needs to get down to some level of reality and read the 100 things not to do if your trying to take over the world. As long as he violates those rules, he is not the brightest 'person.'

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FCBarca - Mar 14, 2004 3:19 am (#59 of 410)

Poor sense of planning!!! He managed to get his body back, using Harry, right under Dumbledore's nose! How is that poor sense of planning! Where has he made poor judgment, except when he forgot about Lily's protection?

Sharker11, but you agree he has done great things? Great thing's need a great mind, and Voldemort has one. He isn't a people person, but that doesn't mean he isn't bright.

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Hogs Head - Mar 15, 2004 9:55 pm (#60 of 410)

Premium Pork But Not Premium HP Member Anymore - Wah!
I vote Bones or Shackleford for Minister. Someone said it was time for a woman, but don't count the King out just yet. I think he's in the runoff.

Is there another thread for predicting the year 6 DADA teacher? Hasn't each one so far been a totally new character? So, I guess, "totally new character."

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Tomoé - Mar 16, 2004 1:28 pm (#61 of 410)

Back in business
I was reading Fatastic Beast and found a interesting footnote :

[...] the Department for the Regulation and Control of Magical Creatures [is] the second largest at the Ministry of magic*

*The largest department at the Ministry of Magic is the Department of Magical Law Enforcement, to which the remaining six departments are all, in some respect, answerable - with the possible exception of the Department of Mysteries. (FB p.xviii)

Sound like the Head of the Department of Magical Law Enforcement supervise the works of other Heads when it comes to laws. The person at this post seems to be the one who have the best visibility and the greater number of occasions to show how competent s/he is to make the whole Ministry works in the same direction.

Interestingly enough, Crouch Sr. and Fudge were both civil servant before they became Minister for Magic, we don't know for Millicent Bagnold (the Ministress between Crouch and Fudge), but we know Crouch was Head of Department of Magical Law Enforcement and Fudge was working for the Department of Magical Law Enforcement when the Potters die and could have been the Head of the Department when he became Minister for Magic. so, even for the characters, Madam Bones should be the most likely candidate, except if charismatic last minute candidate show up.

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Mare - Mar 17, 2004 5:12 am (#62 of 410)

Millicent Bagnold (the Ministress between Crouch and Fudge

Crouch was never minister, he was runner up till he send his son to Azkaban.

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Tomoé - Mar 17, 2004 7:20 am (#63 of 410)

Back in business
I should reread GoF then. (I feel ashamed -_-)

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Thom Matheson - Mar 21, 2004 9:36 pm (#64 of 410)

Has anyone thought about the possibility of Voldemort bringing in a shill and arranging for one of his own to be the next Minister? The obvious choice would be Lucius but that won't work from Azcaban but what about Narcissa or someone else. That would certainly bring about a twist for the final 2 books and the eventual all out war that must be fought.

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Tomoé - Mar 22, 2004 4:18 pm (#65 of 410)

Back in business
miggs: Is there going to be a new minister of magic in the next books?
JK Rowling replies -> Yes. Ha! Finally, a concrete bit of information, I hear you cry!

But why would there be a new Minister for Magic, I'm not under the impression elections are due next year? Will Fudge be ousted? Will he resign? Will he get killed? Will a Dementor pay him a visit and kiss him good-bye? Will Voldemort arrange the whole thing to place one of his DE as the Minister (as Thom suggest)?

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Prefect Marcus - Mar 22, 2004 5:59 pm (#66 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
Tomoé - "But why would there be a new Minister for Magic?"

Simple, he will either resign or be forced out by whatever group decides such things. He has totally botched the job. Because of his supreme malfeasance of office, he has allowed Voldemort a full year to consolidate his power. A number of his prominent cronies have been exposed as Death Eaters. He used the full force of his office to muzzle the press from alerting the public of the danger. His hand-picked representive at Hogwarts (which he supported with the full force of the law) was an unmitigated disaster. All those students are now home regaling their parents with some very interesting stories of abuse of power.

I think a better question is how could he possibly survive? Answer: he can't.

The Minister of Magic appears to be similar to a Prime Minister in a Parlimentary system. He can be forced out with a single no-confidence vote.

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Tomoé - Mar 22, 2004 6:46 pm (#67 of 410)

Back in business
Canada have a Parlimentary system and I never heard of a no-confidence vote. How does that works? Do every citizens vote or just the representatives?

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Prefect Marcus - Mar 22, 2004 9:26 pm (#68 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
Edited by Mar 22, 2004 8:27 pm
The representatives vote.

This works because the citizens do not vote for the Prime Minister directly. They vote for their representatives. The representatves then vote for their leader.

If they can vote in a leader, they can vote him out just as easily.

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Vern Afanofhp - Mar 23, 2004 1:33 am (#69 of 410)

Just my thought: Prefect Marcus, asked five questions---

I think we are dealing with 5 separate factions---

1 - Harry and the DA 2 - DD and The Order 3 - Voldemort and the DE 4 - The MoM 5 - The General (Magical) Public

Q - 1 & 3 -- I think the MoM will want D Umbridge to replace Fudge. Voldemort thinks--if I had a few more enmies like her, I would not need the Death Eaters. But of course Hermoine uses the secret wepon--Rita Skeeter--the MoM may have regained? control of The Daily Prophet. But not Quibbler!!

Q - 2 Percy will be advanced-- to oblivion. (somewhere?)

Q - 4 I think Arthur, will be promoted to the #2 spot.

Q - 5 ?????

Daily Prophet-but not the Quibbler

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Tomoé - Mar 23, 2004 10:16 am (#70 of 410)

Back in business
Thanks for the precision Marcus. A quick search taught me the Prime Minister of Canada was also elected by the representative until 1919, since when the leader of the party in power became de facto Prime Minister.

Is the Minister for Magic the only representative for the Wizarding folk? If yes, who can vote him out? the muggle representative? all the wizard of age? the Wizengamot?

I want book 6 to sort that out. ^_^

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Prefect Marcus - Mar 23, 2004 11:08 am (#71 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
Tomoe,

Rowling hasn't given us that level of detail yet on the governance of the Wizarding World. We have to examine what we do know and make inferences from it.

It is likely that the Wizengamot constitutes the ruling body of the WW. It acts as both the Supreme Court and the Supreme Legislature. They appoint a Minister of Magic to be the Supreme Executive.

How the Wizengamot is selected is not known. There are three possible scenarios:

Members are chosen by the citizens in an election. This known as a Representative Democracy.
Members are appointed by other members. This is known as a Self-perpetuating Oligarcy.
Members are chosen by birth. This is known as an Aristocracy.
Personally I think it is likely a combination of the first two with some remants of the third. Since Rowling has told us that a new Minister of Magic is coming, it is likely we will find out more details in the next book.

Marcus

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Loopy Lupin - Mar 23, 2004 12:23 pm (#72 of 410)

Marcus,

Nice run down of the possibilities of the WW's parlimentary system. I'm not sure yet if the Wizengamot is both the judicial and legislative branch, but as we haven't heard of any other ruling body, I think your theory is the best one we have based on what we know. I will point out that in OoP, DD was kicked out of the Wizengamot (later reinstated). Unless there was a special election or something over the summer, this would tend to suggest that the body might be a self-perpetuating oligarchy.

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Prefect Marcus - Mar 23, 2004 12:53 pm (#73 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
Thank-you. :-)

It could be possible that part of the Wizengamot is appointed, and part of them are elected. The British Parliment today is sort of like that, with the House of Commons being the elected branch and the House of Lords being the non-elected. Rowling might imagine them both together in one body.

It could also be that some are seated by virtue of their office.

It is a fascinating subject. I can't wait for more information from Rowling.

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Tomoé - Mar 23, 2004 1:43 pm (#74 of 410)

Back in business
Thanks for your patience Marcus. Part of the Wizengamot is appointed, and part of them are elected, interesting idea.

Right Loopy Lupin, Dumbledore wasn't only removed from his Chief Warlock title but from the whole Wizengamot as well. That sounds like Dumbledore was not elected, more likely chosen among his peers.

There were 50 of them assisting to Harry's trial, but they could be more numerous. We know Griselda Marchbanks who is also head of the Wizarding Examinations Authority, Dumbledore who is also Hogwarts's Headmaster and Tiberius Ogden (for whom we don't know much). Both DD and Mrs Marchbanks have another job beside Wizengamot. In the pensive scene, Mad Eye Moody was beside Dumbledore, he could have been one of them along with his Auror functions. It sounds like a part-time job...

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Loopy Lupin - Mar 23, 2004 3:03 pm (#75 of 410)

I might also point out that in the five books we haven't heard anything (that I have noticed at least) that would hint at an election being held. Of course, I wouldn't expect Harry to be up on that sort of thing (Hermione would be another story), but perhaps the elected officials serve for terms longer than 5 years.

In the muggle world, how long would a member of the House of Commons serve before facing another election?

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Gina R Snape - Mar 23, 2004 3:05 pm (#76 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Let's not forget the Supreme Mugwump title. What is that all about?

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Dr Filibuster - Mar 23, 2004 4:57 pm (#77 of 410)

Sue, from Northwich, England.
Elections are held at least every five years in the UK, sometimes sooner.

Check out [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] There's an "Introduction to Parliament" on there if you're interested.

I love the Supreme Mugwump tag. Maybe it includes liasing with/deciding how to handle muggles? Although it was Fudge who spoke to the Prime Minister about Sirius. Perhaps Dumbledore's head of a committe that represents all magical beings?

My favourite muggle title within our judicial system is Law Lord. My law teacher at night school used to say it sounded like something from Dr Who (long, long running sc-fi tv series with Time Lords).

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Gina R Snape - Mar 23, 2004 5:57 pm (#78 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Hmmmm. I never considered a connexion between muggles and 'mugwump' before.

JKR loosely based the wizarding education system on the british system with OWLs and NEWTS for O and A levels (or GCSEs). I see no reason why she wouldn't at least partially base the Ministry on the british system. It is, after all, what she knows best.

There doesn't seem to be any mention of political parties, though. She seems to be more interested in government corruption and ineptitude. So I doubt she'll get that detailed about it.
Emily - Mar 23, 2004 6:04 pm (#79 of 410)[/b]
Us SS, pg 64-65

"There's a Ministry of Magic?" Harry asked, before he could stop himself.

"'Course," said Hagrid. "They wanted Dumbledore fer Minister, o' course, but he'd never leave Hogwarts, so old Cornelius Fudge got the job. Bungler if ever there was one. So he pelts Dumbledore with owls every morning, asking for advice."

"But what does a Ministry of Magic do?"

"Well, their main job is to keep it from Muggles that ther's still witches an' wizards up an' down the country."

OK. It sounds like, since they wanted DD but had to settle for Fudge that there defiitely isn't an Aristocracy. At least beyond the fact that Pure-bloods consider themselves better.

Second question: Who are 'they'? I'm guessing it's the general wizarding public and the Wizengamot/whoever else picks the Minister. THis doesn't really settle anything, but it does prove Marcus's point.

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Gina R Snape - Mar 23, 2004 6:12 pm (#80 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Well, we know for a fact the Ministry does more than just hide the wizarding world from muggles. Even if that is their chief concern, they must still deal with wizarding criminals. And then there is the whole DoM, which seems more like an investigatory laboratory.

Plus, they organise wizarding events (like the Quidditch World Cup and tri-wizard tournament). And then there is international trade regulations. It is its own bureaucracy. I don't think we can really extrapolate much from Hagrid's statement.

Darn! Chalk this up to yet something else we need to ask JKR!!!! What a pity the kids don't pay attention in their History of Magic class, so we might learn as well!

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Tomoé - Mar 23, 2004 6:19 pm (#81 of 410)

Back in business
So in the Muggle UK, there's the House of Commons, elected at least every five years (sometimes sooner), that draw the lines of the future legislations, and the House of Lords, named by a committee, that considers legislation and is highest court in the United Kingdom (that sounds like Wizengamot).

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Emily - Mar 23, 2004 7:17 pm (#82 of 410)

Gina, I didn't put that in because I thought that was all they did! I put it in as a continuation of the quote, in case it helped one of those geniuses that are out there that can figure things out with as little information as that. I'm not one of them, so I added it in.

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Gina R Snape - Mar 23, 2004 8:19 pm (#83 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Heh, heh. Sorry! Well, it is good to reference canon.

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Loopy Lupin - Mar 24, 2004 7:03 am (#84 of 410)

I did a search on the lexicon for mugwump and here is the link. Bottom line is that its uncertain from the books what this title means exactly. DD is obviously a leader, but not the Minister of Magic o'course.

HPL: Titles ... Supreme Mugwump The term "Mugwump" refers to a leader, derived from an Algonquian word meaning "great chief." But over the years, a number of interesting ... [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] - 21k - Cached - Similar pages

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Tomoé - Mar 24, 2004 8:21 am (#85 of 410)

Back in business
Is mugwump written somewhere in one of the book?

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Loopy Lupin - Mar 24, 2004 8:47 am (#86 of 410)

Yeah, DD is referred to as Supreme Mugwump of something or another in OoP



Madame Librarian - Mar 24, 2004 9:13 pm (#87 of 410)[/b]
It's interesting that the Wizarding World uses a title from Native American culture.

Good ol' Google offers this brief explanation--read this. It's a curious choice of title for DD given this ironic meaning. I wonder if JKR knew the later connotations of the word.

BTW--I love the part about your mug being on one side and your wump on the other! Made me laugh.

Ciao. Barb

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Thom Matheson - Mar 25, 2004 12:54 am (#88 of 410)

I have tried to research this without much success but I found a few points that can sort of give us a direction. Most all of this comes from CoS and GoF.

When Harry and Ron are being questioned after their flying car incident, Snape goes on about the boys breaking the under age magic thing and Dumbledore responds with "I am familar with the laws as I have written quite a few myself". I think that reference goes to the Wizengamot as the governing body and law makers as well as the high court. In GoF the explanation that Barty Crouch was slated to be the next MoM until the DE issue with his son that opened the door for Fudge. That being said, (here is the assumption on my part) I think that the post of Minister falls on an election within the Wizengamot, much like a Board of Directors choose a president rather then a general election by the people. As DD was the head of the Wizengamot, I think that that was why he was asked to take over the MoM. He of course refused and that opened the door to both Crouch and eventually Fudge. My guess is that the candidates are placed in nomination and voted on. The only problem with this, if my theory is right, is how do you get to the Wizengamot. It seems that most of the Players and Department Heads are also on it. I will assume that DD is there as the head of Hogwarts. If this is the case it makes sense to me that when you are hired to work for the Ministry, you then work your way up the ladder and your appointment to the Wizengamot. Arthur is not high enough on the food chain to have earned a seat. I am not saying this as well as I would like so I hope that it makes sense.

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Prefect Marcus - Mar 25, 2004 12:00 pm (#89 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
Careful, Thom. That line about writing laws comes from the movie. It is not in the book.

However, I think you are basically correct. We simply do not know enough about how the WW works. I suspect we will find out more in book #6.

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Loopy Lupin - Mar 25, 2004 12:47 pm (#90 of 410)

I suspect we'll find out more about the Ministry as well. I suppose that Fudge's ouster will play something of a role Book 6. How mad the WW must be to discover that Voldemort's has had a year's head start.

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Sharker11 - Mar 25, 2004 11:44 pm (#91 of 410)

Lets not forget that Fudge only came to power the year before Harry came to Hogwarts. That was 9 years after Big V's fall, and the discovery of Crouch's son as a DE. What was going on during those years? (reference chapter Luna Lovegood, OotP)

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Molly Weasly Wannabe - Mar 26, 2004 7:33 am (#92 of 410)

This is something I posted under the Predictions for Book 6 and 7. I figured I would also put it here seeing that it does have something to do with MoM.

I have been reading how when Ron says something in a joking matter, it comes true...and that many of the people (or so I have read) thinks he is a Seer. I was listening to OoTP tonight and heard something that makes me think I know who the next Minister of Magic will be. In OoTP Chapter 29 page 652 Ron and Hermonie are talking. Ron says to Hermonie, "We've got about much chance of winning the Quidditch Cup this year as Dad's got of becoming the Minister of Magic." I had my predictions that Authur would become the Minister of Magic...what Ron said (in a joking matter) makes me think this will come to pass even more now. What do ya'll think? Can you imagine how much this will make the Malfoy's dislike the Weasly's even more now. Draco's dad will no longer be able to bribe the MoM with is "generous" donations. I would love to see the look on Percy's face too IF he dad became Minister of Magic. Ooooo...I can't wait until the next book comes out.

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Iverson Godfrey - Mar 26, 2004 8:01 pm (#93 of 410)

Harry Potter fan since 2002
miggs: Is there going to be a new minister of magic in the next books? JK Rowling replies -> Yes. Ha! Finally, a concrete bit of information, I hear you cry!

At first glance it does appear to be a concrete bit of information. BUT...what if we are all reading way too much into this? We've all gone and made the assumption that the new MoM will be a direct result of the truth that finally surfaced at the end of book 5. It seems odd that she would give us something that significant to stew over and I wonder if she wasn't leading us a little off the path by giving us that little tidbit. Here we sit thinking we are so smart (big red herring) and have figured out what will be happening in the government in the next book, when we don't even know what the title of that book will be yet.

The truth is, as many have alluded to in their posts on this thread, that we really don't know how wizarding government works, but in "real life" it isn't a simple process to overthrow a sitting world leader. Proof of that was shown a few years back when a certain US President was impeached by the Legislative Branch of our government. He did not resign and served the remainder of his term in office. And, for the record, has JKR ever given us a clue this big about what is coming in future books, so far in advance?

I think it is entirely plausible that Fudge could, with some quick thinking and a good cover story, talk himself out of a very deep hole. He is afterall, a politician.

Because the question was posed, "...in future books", it is very possible that the new minister will appear in both upcoming installments and a shake-up is possible. However, could it be that the new Minister of Magic isn't announced until the very end of Book 7, as Hermione is sworn into office? Wink

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Prefect Marcus - Mar 26, 2004 8:15 pm (#94 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
But Hogwarts is NOT in the US. It is the UK. And in the UK, a Prime Minister is only one No-Confidence vote away from being kicked out.

Look at the sorry history of Italy. They lose Prime Ministers all the time.

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Iverson Godfrey - Mar 26, 2004 9:07 pm (#95 of 410)

Harry Potter fan since 2002
I didn't mean to offend...or to suggest that any of this takes place in the US. I know the systems are different, I'm just pointing out that until all the fuss over that situation a few years ago, a lot of people were under the impression that impeachement was the end of the road for a President. We haven't been told how MoM's are selected or ousted from office. But however it works, their system seems to be stable.

I'm not really trying to make an argument one way or another on this point. I just wonder if JKR's concrete bit of information was as big as it seemed when we first read it, that's all.

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Tomoé - Mar 26, 2004 10:30 pm (#96 of 410)

Back in business
"in the next books" how could have we miss that nuance. -_-

So many thing could happen in book 6, if the new Minister appear in book 7, so many deaths, so many downfalls, so many rises (Arthur anyone), so many new candidates ...

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Thom Matheson - Mar 26, 2004 10:54 pm (#97 of 410)

Well we haven't explored the fact that Voldemort has "friends in high places' as well. What a perfect time to slide in on e of his own. A little confundis charm, a little memory management, a few ice cubes, stir gently and we have Voldy's old fashion Minister. Don't all freak at once. It could happen. Boy would that set up a major challenge for a big book 7 finish.

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Loopy Lupin - Mar 29, 2004 7:05 am (#98 of 410)

I think Thom may be onto something. We are all lamenting that there are only two books left, but by the same token, JKR still have two books worth of conflict to fill. Who is to say that the new Minister will be some "right-thinking" wizard who will help DD and the Order? He or she could be a Voldemort puppet. Recall the bit in Trelawny's prediction that he is going to be greater and more powerful than before (paraphrasing).

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Prefect Marcus - Mar 29, 2004 8:19 am (#99 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
I guess there is a chance for the voting body to select somebody who promises to "bring back the happy times", instead of a Winston Churchill type promising nothing but "sweat, toil, and tears" (if I got that right.) But I doubt it.

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Gina R Snape - Mar 29, 2004 9:41 am (#100 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Now that JKR has said there definitely will be a new Minister for Magic, I'm willing to bet that will be one of the tag lines for advertising in the next book.

I do think it's an interesting idea to have a Voldemort puppet in power. But I don't think it's the Ministry Voldy is interested in. He doesn't strike me as being interested in legitimate power. Also, we've already faced Order/Ministry conflict with Fudge (albeit via incompetence). So I'm not sure that's the route JKR will take.

I more likely predict we will see all these DEs coming out of the woodwork. That it will be discovered that under Fudge's nose there were people in power who have been discovered as DEs and that will lead to his discredit and removal. And they will elect someone legitimate who has a proven record (I think Amelia Bones) but the Order will still be a secret so they can do undercover work while Aurors are dispatched to do the overt policework.

And with all this upheaval, hiriing practises will be revamped. Do we have any students taking their NEWTs this year? That might be something, to see a change in restrictions for hiring where the kids have new NEWT requirements.

It's also very convenient that Tonks and Kingsley are aurors. I bet we will be seeing a lot of Ministry information through them (and Arthur), so all the dirt from the Ministry shake-up could easily be learned through them.

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Shake-up at the Ministry (Post 101 to 150)

Post  Elanor on Sat May 21, 2011 3:15 am

Thom Matheson - Mar 29, 2004 1:09 pm (#101 of 410)
I brought this up about a Voldy stooge as I was reminded of the paralels that have been stated so often with Hitler Germany. This would seem to be a perfect time for a sneaky Voldemort to lie cheat and steal control of the ministry and therefore control of Hogwarts alowing for the elimination of both Harry and Dumbledore. It wopuld seem to me that have the Ministry in his hip pocket would do him good. Well, a stooge anyway. Whats the old saying? "He who has control, wins".

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haymoni - Mar 29, 2004 1:18 pm (#102 of 410)

JKR said that there would be a new Minister, but she didn't say when.

It might not be until the end of Book 7.

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Thom Matheson - Mar 29, 2004 8:44 pm (#103 of 410)

I'm just suggesting that if in fact the change is in 6 and the new Minister is "Dumbledorian" what could possibly happen that would befit Harry to be involved, as these books are about Harry and his favorite antagonist, He Who Must Not Be Named.

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Zoe's dad - Mar 30, 2004 3:39 am (#104 of 410)

This goes back a few posts, but I would love to see Arthur Weasley be the MOM, if only so that Percy would have to suck up to the head of the family that he has pretty much turned his back on. Can you imagine the look on his face when his dad's name is brought forth as the Fudge's replacement? He would be frozen in place for ten minutes while it sunk in. Probably muttering, "But... But... But... How... How... How...DAAADDDDDYYYYYY!!!!!!!"

And that, folks, would bring a smile to my face.

Dan

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Thom Matheson - Mar 30, 2004 9:23 am (#105 of 410)

Another convert for the Arthur Weasley campaign!!!! Wahoo

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Loopy Lupin - Mar 30, 2004 12:22 pm (#106 of 410)

Voldemort may not be ultimately "interested" in the MoM, but it would suit his purposes have a puppet there if only for the ultimate goal of disbanding the ministry altogether. He can't really be the dictator of the WW as long as there is a ministry. Of course, we spent the entire last book battling with the ministry, so JKR may not want to go that route again.

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Padfoot - Mar 30, 2004 12:31 pm (#107 of 410)

I am keeping my fingers crossed for Arthur too. I really like his character and would like to see him with some more power and respect in the wizard community. Malfoy will never respect him, but who really cares about his opinion?

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Blast - Apr 1, 2004 1:30 am (#108 of 410)

I think I'm back!
A non confidence vote is when a bill before parliament is defeated. The Prime Minister must go to the Crown and ask for a new election, or another person can form a Government. This usually happens only when there is not a majority government i.e. when no party has more than fifty percent of the members. Voting down a piece of legislation shows that Parliament does not have the confidence of the party in charge. When there is not a clear majority in the house of parliament, a coalition is formed between two or more parties to get a majority. When these parties cannot work together anymore, then there is usually a new government formed. I hope this clears up non confidence.

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Tomoé - Apr 1, 2004 1:33 am (#109 of 410)

Back in business
Thanks Blast, that's clearer now. ^_^

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rambkowalczyk - Apr 1, 2004 5:23 pm (#110 of 410)

I need a question cleared up. Where does it say that Fudge became MOM in 1990. I always thought it happened soon (say within a year)after Voldemorts downfall. I remember reading that Crouch was supposed to be next in line but because of his son people changed their mind about Crouch. If memory serves me right Crouch Jr was 19 when he went to Azkaban. If Crouch Jr was 19 in 1990 it would make him 10 in 1981. Does this mean Crouch Jr was recruited after Voldemort was defeated?

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prof sprout - Apr 1, 2004 5:39 pm (#111 of 410)

It mentions it in the first book, when Hagrid was talking to Harry about the Wizarding World. I don't have the exact quote but that is where I think you can find it.

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Prefect Marcus - Apr 1, 2004 6:12 pm (#112 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
Actually, it comes from an article in The Quibbler.

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Tomoé - Apr 1, 2004 9:31 pm (#113 of 410)

Back in business
Actually rambkowalczyk, Crouch Sr was seen to be the next Minister years before the next election, he had been so brilliant with the VW1 that he was the obvious choice, kind like Dumbledore who refuse to be candidate, but people wanted him to get the post anyway.

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rambkowalczyk - Apr 2, 2004 11:08 am (#114 of 410)

Thank-you. I checked the Quibbler. It did say he was elected 5 years ago. In book 1 there is no reference as to when he was elected just that Dumbledore was pelted with owls daily asking for advice which would make sense if he was only there a year. I'm sure my confusion had to be how I misinterpreted Sirius's story in GOF.

This changes my thinking a little. If Dumbledore refused the job in 1982 one could reason he really loved being headmaster and doesn't want to leave it. But in 1990 Dumbledore knows that Harry is coming to Hogwarts in a year and needs to be there to to make it safe.

There are 2 other women candidates for the job: Emmaline Vance and Hestia Jones. They were part of the guard that escorted Harry to London. Emmaline Vance was in the order during Voldemorts first reign of terror. Granted right now no one knows what their day job is but they will be important in Book 6 and 7 since they don't seem to be doing much now.

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James Greenfield - Apr 3, 2004 3:43 am (#115 of 410)

I agree with those who think that the new Minister Of Magic will be selected/appointed/voted for in Book 6, and that it will be Madame Amelia Bones. Because: 1. The Department of Magical Law Enforcement is the largest and most complex in the entire Ministry, so she has plenty of administrative experience. And she is respected as fair, by almost all sides.

2. It appears to be a traditional route to the head position: "First the Cop, then the Top".

3. I think this ties in with the thing JKR insisted on being added to the script in Movie 1: Susan Bones being selected as a Hufflepuff.If her aunt becomes the next Minister, Susan may become a de facto liaison between Hogwarts and the Ministry. So, we had to have scenes with her in Movie 1 (and Movie 2?).

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Catherine - Apr 3, 2004 5:59 am (#116 of 410)

Canon Seeker
James Greenfield,

JKR already told us that Susan Bones was selected as a Hufflepuff in the chapter "The Sorting Hat" in SS.

Otherwise, I think your analysis is right one!

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Gina R Snape - Apr 3, 2004 7:08 am (#117 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
I think what James meant was that it was important to show Susan Bones in the movie, as opposed to other characters. Blaise Zabini's name doesn't get mentioned in the movie, but we know Blaise was sorted into Slytherin.

Susan Bones shows up in a few scenes doing nothing but appearing. At one point, she even winds up in the wrong class! So, idea is that because of her conspicuousness in the films, she will turn out to be important down the line...perhaps because her aunt becomes Minister for Magic.

The only argument I have against this 'clues in the movie' theory is that the actor playing Susan Bones is Chris Columbus' daughter. While none of us know for certain, I suspect she might have an American accent. It also seems a bit cheeky of him to hire his own daughter for what should be a walk-on role that will ostensibly blossom into something much more important down the line.

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Loopy Lupin - Apr 5, 2004 1:09 pm (#118 of 410)

Well, nepotism runs rampant in Hollywood. That being said, Columbus didn't necessarily know that Susan Bones will blossum into a major player down the line unless he was told that by JKR which I highly doubt.

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prof sprout - Apr 13, 2004 8:15 am (#119 of 410)

I was thinking I wonder if Fudge would go to trial for passing information to Death Eaters. Or even just being "friends" with Malfoy. That is what could get him ousted.

Remember when Ludo was on trial for passing info to Rockwood? (I can't remember his name for sure right now). I don't know if Bagman is/was a DE or not, I think that was a red herring. Any I'm sure Fudge has let stuff slip while talking to Malfoy. Who ever wants the power could spin it what ever way they want. I'm guessing there is going to be mass suspicion because of VW1, and they will crack down on anyone even remotely tied. If they even have trials at all.

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Chris. - Apr 14, 2004 10:41 am (#120 of 410)

HBP: 16th July 2005: the most anticipated day in history
Prof sprout, I think it'll be just like VW1 and they'll forget the trials and send the suspects to Azakaban, like they did with Sirius.

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Gina R Snape - Apr 14, 2004 11:04 am (#121 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Ah, the question is here whether they will learn from past mistakes or be doomed to repeat them...

Who was it that decided no trials? Crouch, right? Well, Crouch is dead now and there were those who did not agree with this policy. Perhaps this will be part of the upcoming conflict at the Ministry, or between the Minister (new or old) and DD.

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Tomoé - Apr 14, 2004 3:31 pm (#122 of 410)

Back in business
Yes Gina, it was Crouch who made the decision to do without trial and allowed the Aurors to use the Unforgivables. He was Head of the Department of Magical Law Enforcement, Madam Bones is now in charge and I don't she her going in this path for now, but who can tell how bad thing can get in VW2 ...

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Ihavebothbuttocks - May 5, 2004 11:53 am (#123 of 410)

Something just occurred to me that would explain the change of Minister: Could Karkaroff be the one "to cowardly to return", and Fudge the one "who has left (LV) forever"?
In GOF, after Barty, Jnr. was unmasked, Fudge didn't hesitate to call in a dementor to administer the "kiss" on him. Was this just his way of dealing with a known murderer of which he was fearful of for his own safety, or was it because he didn't want Jnr. to mention him as one of the inner circle to DD?
Right now, Fudge is a kind of pocket Voldemort; he calls the tunes in the wizarding world. His closest known associate is a death eater (Lucius Malfoy), who presented a genial, generous face to the WW.
His assistant was a foul, vicious witch with a capital "B" (Umbridge), who also presented a pleasant demeanor to the WW, but actually delighted in torture, and longed for purification in the WW. (Sound familiar?) Fudge placed her in Hogwarts, where she was given free rein, and was able to report back to him everything that was going on at the school, anything that might wrest his bit of power away from him.
As far as Dumbledore goes, I think it's a case of "keep your friends close and your enemies closer". DD is said to be the only wizard that LV is afraid of, and some of that may have rubbed off onto Fudge. After all, Albus does have a way of finding out things, and Fudge would not want it to be known that he was (if he was) an "elite" in the DEs.
If that were the case, Fudge definitely would be one who left forever (or the one too cowardly to return, for that matter). Imagine what Voldemort's reaction would be to an underling who stepped in, seized power, and surrounded himself with many of the Dork Lard's staunchest supporters and making them obedient to himself.
Just tossing it up to what you all think of this.

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Tomoé - May 5, 2004 12:16 pm (#124 of 410)

Back in business
I wonder if we will see a Rita Steeker article about Fudge ...

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Padfoot - May 5, 2004 12:36 pm (#125 of 410)

If Fudge was(is) a DE, wouldn't the DE's who were caught have said something? Fudge probably saw the DE's who were caught, there must have been some reaction. Accusations and the like from the DE's. The ending of book 5 glossed over some issues such as this one. I would have liked a more thorough explanation of what happened here.

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Verbina - May 6, 2004 9:45 am (#126 of 410)

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I have always hoarbored the idea that there was something not right about Fudge. He has been under Lucius thumb for so long...I can't help but wonder if some of the things that he was accusing Harry and Dumbledore of weren't things he just picked up from Lucius.

Yes, Fudge is a git but...is that for real? Is he really that far gone or could he be playing it up? Sort of how no one would suspect Quirrel in PS/SS. No one suspected Tom Riddle in CoS. No one suspected Mad Eye in GoF and no one suspected Peter in PoA.
Just an odd notion floating through. Smile

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Prefect Marcus - May 6, 2004 10:00 am (#127 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
I am confident that Fudge is what he is. He is not a Death Eater. He is just a small little man placed in a high position that he feels insecure about. I've known far too many people just like him.

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Gina R Snape - May 7, 2004 8:24 am (#128 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
I agree, Marcus. I think JKR is making a poignant point about small, close-minded people in high places through Fudge. And I hope when the Ministry shake-down occurs that there is a big scandal and tribunal to add to the drama. I only hope it doesn't distract people too much from Voldemort. He would of course take advantage of that situation to get away with things under people's noses.

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haymoni - May 13, 2004 7:52 pm (#129 of 410)

Snape wouldn't have had to show Fudge his arm if Fudge was a Death Eater. He would have felt the mark burn himself.

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mike miller - May 14, 2004 5:54 am (#130 of 410)

aka The Barmy Old Codger
Good observation Haymoni! I've always thought Fudge got the job because he was not a threat to any of the "real powers" in the WW. Crouch, Sr. seemed to have the inside track until Barty Jr. link to Voldemort showing that Crouch, Sr. put his career ahead of his family. With Voldemort apparently out of the picture, a "politically correct" appointment was made, Fudge.

Fudge has proven that the job of Minister of Magic is beyond him. I think Madame Bones is the lead candidate to replace Fudge with Arthur Weasley being placed in a position of importance as the war with Voldemort becomes visible to the Muggles. The final confrontation with Voldemort will change the WW forever and position Arthur to follow Madame Bones as Minister of Magic.

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JKR4PM - May 14, 2004 10:26 am (#131 of 410)

"We did it!" "Did What? Goodnight."
Haymoni, if Snape knew that Fudge was a DE then you would be correct. However, if Snape knew that Fudge was a DE he would have told DD, right? Unless Snape's loyalties lie elsewhere. Wink

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haymoni - May 14, 2004 11:10 am (#132 of 410)

Snape shows his arm to Fudge, pointing out how dark the mark was after it burned his arm. If Fudge had a mark, he would have felt and seen the same thing and should have known that Voldy was back. Fudge would have joined him or fled. He wouldn't have hung around gripping his bowler "He can't be back." He would have KNOWN Voldy was back.

I do wonder though when Snape clutched his arm after Barty/Moody says something about marks not going away - did Fake Moody make it burn?

Also, did Barty have a mark? He may have been too young to get "tatooed", but still considered himself the most faithful servant.

Sorry - "mark" questions just popped into my head. Back to our regularly scheduled topic.

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Ozymandias - May 14, 2004 11:13 am (#133 of 410)

Nothing beside remains...
Unless Fudge is smarter than we give him credit for, and he was in charge of the "Keeping Voldie's Return a Secret Until the Strategically Appropriate Moment" mission. (For the record, I don't think Fudge is a DE, just an ignorant git, but this is a way that the Fudge as DE theory could work. And who says I'm right, anyway?)

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Weeny Owl - May 16, 2004 11:09 am (#134 of 410)

I think Fudge is just what he seems. He's out of his depth in trying to manage the Ministry.

I can't remember who said it, but there was something about Fudge sending owls to Dumbledore wanting advice, and once Lucius got his hooks into Fudge, I think he switched advisors.

Now that Lucius is in Azkaban, it'll be interesting to see if Dumbledore starts getting multiple owls from Fudge every day.

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Prefect Marcus - May 16, 2004 12:40 pm (#135 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
No, I think Fudge has had his chance and muffed it. He is not long for the Minister's job.

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Weeny Owl - May 16, 2004 1:53 pm (#136 of 410)

I agree, Marcus, but I meant while he's trying to scramble and keep his head above water. I'm sure he won't last long, but while he does, he's sure to be practically attached to Dumbledore.

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Madame Librarian - May 18, 2004 12:02 pm (#137 of 410)

Here's a wild thought(might belong on another thread, but, you decide)--

Fudge is absolutely disgraced at the Ministry. Can't show his head there, resigns in shame, sputtering excuses and apologies. DD takes pity on him, gives him that proverbial second chance by hiring him as a staff member at Hogwarts as the....yep, DADA teacher!!

My goodness, you say, she's spent too many hours in the car on the road to and from Boston (re-listening to PoA, I might add--twice, actually). But, maybe he's creitable as a teacher, and knows a decent amount about dark arts defenses having designed the job requirements for Auror, and is truly repentant, and determined to redeem himself. In conjunction with the DA, it's actually an OK class.

OK, zap me down gently, please, as I am half joking here.

Ciao. Barb

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Prefect Marcus - May 18, 2004 12:16 pm (#138 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
Sure thing, Barb.

All the DADA teachers so far have been new characters. That would exclude Fudge. Of course Rowling might change her pattern. We will just have to see.

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Padfoot - May 20, 2004 10:57 am (#139 of 410)

Oh Barb, I sure hope not! DD gives second chances, but I don't think he would appoint Fudge as a teacher that soon. I don't really picture Fudge as a powerful wizard, I see him as a bureaucrat who loves his job.

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Madame Librarian - May 20, 2004 8:36 pm (#140 of 410)

Oh, well, it was not a serious speculation. Just one of those goofy, oddball what-ifs. It would be a hilarious scene though. Picture the look on the kids' faces if ex-minister Fudge sauntered into the classroom, brandishing his wand as if he knew what to do with it.

Ciao. Barb

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haymoni - May 21, 2004 3:45 pm (#141 of 410)

It probably wouldn't faze them - anyone after Umbridge would be an improvement.

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Gina R Snape - May 28, 2004 11:41 am (#142 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Eh. That would be funny, but something tells me DD won't be doing Fudge any favours--in or out of the ministry.

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Blast - Jun 2, 2004 7:31 pm (#143 of 410)

I think I'm back!
Fudge seems to have a tainted past, the way he ordered the kiss on Crouch Jr.It seemed to me that he was trying to make sure the he was shut up. I feel that Malfoy might have been hiding and using certain information on Fudge over his head, and that is why Lucius et. al. did not suffer too much after W.V.1. If this is the case, then this gives Fudge even more reason to resign.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Jun 22, 2004 2:49 pm (#144 of 410)

The idea of Amelia Bones being the next minister of magic has some attractions.

1. She is experienced in the area of Magical Law Enforcement. 2. She is a powerful voice within the Wizengamot haven succeeded Albus during his temporary removal from the post and during that time much to Fudge's chagrin she proved to be on of Dumbledore and Harry's staunchest supporters during Harry's trial. 3. Since brother Edgar was a member of the Order of the Phoenix it is likely that Amelia since she is as sdtrong of character as her brother was would be an acceptable choice to the Order and those supporting Albus Dumbledore. 4. She has not show the disrespect toward Arthur Weasley that others like Fudge and Malfoy show him because of his attitude toward Muggles and Half Bloods and Squibs which would holder in good stead with the Non pureblood constituencies.It also demonstrates that she believes that its merit and not connections which should dictate who attains power.

Now if Madam Bones becomes minister there is only onne choice as I see it to succeed her as Head of the Magical Law Enforcement Division Alastor Moody because of his extensive knowledge of Voldemort and the Death Eaters.

As for Fudge he may be demoted to his position prior to becoming Minister of Magic.

Best regards, Nathan Zimmermann

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Gina R Snape - Jun 22, 2004 7:35 pm (#145 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
I can't imagine the Minister being demoted. He's got to be sacked, I'm sure. Other than that, great post Nathan. I agree wholeheartedly.


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Nathan Zimmermann - Jun 22, 2004 7:47 pm (#146 of 410)

Gina R. Snape I take that as a compliment and a high one given it is only my 10th post. As to the idea about Fudge that occurred to meas it would be too much of a liability to have him in seeting which he cannot be watched closely because as minister of magic he would have been in position to read the most sensitive of douments and if the imformation he possessed were to fall into voldemort's hands its effect could be potentially devestating to efforts to combat Voldemort. The only way that I can see to prevent this if fudge is cut loose is to oblivate his memory.

Best Regards, Nathan

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Gina R Snape - Jun 22, 2004 8:08 pm (#147 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
He may be bound to some kind of magical oath upon being elected Minister. Otherwise that would be a problem every time a Minister for Magic retires or is impeached, etc. But it is an interesting one to ponder. How much does Fudge know and what sort of danger could he create (or be in) once out of office.

And let's face it, he's going to be in a LOT of hot water. The public will be angry for concealing the truth about the Dark Lord. The parents may be in an uproar over Umbridge's treatment of the children at Hogwarts. The Order members will be willingly flinging him out the window. The Death Eaters will be worried about what he knows, knowing how chummy Lucius was with him. There will be strife within the Ministry regarding his leadership.

No, it won't be a good time to be Fudge come the sixth book...

And welcome to the forum, Nathan. Am I mistaken that you've been around for a bit, but quiet? Your name looks familiar for some reason, and I've seen a flurry of posts by you in last couple of days.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Jun 22, 2004 8:41 pm (#148 of 410)

Gina R. Snape Yes I was around brief time several years ago but I had to take a break tdue to my studies it was long before moving to world crossing.

I like the theory that they are bound by some sort of oath. I know it unlikely even improbable he will be kept on at the ministry. Yo have an excellent point The Order members and their supporters Like Tiberus Ogden, Griselda Marchbanks, and Amelia Bones would be in an uproar. I doubt even Percy weasley could continue his support of Fudge and he will be sacked

There is another possible way around this problem.

It is likely that the Death Eaters will percieve him as a threat because of his close association with Lucius Malfoy, Augustus Rookwood, and Walden Macnair.

Therefore there exists the possibility he will be eliminated perhaps, the victim of an an assassination becoming yet another victim of Lord Voldemort like Frank Bryce, Bertha Jorkins, Barty Crouch Sr. and Cedric Diggory and Broderick Bode before him.

Best Regards, Nathan

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Gina R Snape - Jun 22, 2004 9:04 pm (#149 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Oooooh, now that would be dark and interesting indeed. There could be an assassination attempt, or even success, followed by a trial as they point a finger at so many potentials. Hmmmm. Would that take away from the books, though? Or add to the mayhem in the upheaval within the wizarding world?

And, I forgot to mention that the public will be really angry that DEs were working within the Ministry.

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Tomoé - Jun 22, 2004 11:25 pm (#150 of 410)

Back in business
Oh! I forgot Macnair was in Azkaban too, maybe Percy will take his post. ^_^

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Shake-up at the Ministry (Post 151 to 200)

Post  Elanor on Sat May 21, 2011 3:16 am

TheQuibbler - Jun 26, 2004 4:26 pm (#151 of 410)
Amelia is certainly right for the job yet in the books I've noticed that whenever there is a comparison both usually come true. For example "Harry has as much chance of being an auror as Dumbledore has of returning to this school" also in the third book it is said that "..has as much chance as dad being elected minister of magic" yet I think there is a difference between the 2 so I don't know.

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S.E. Jones - Jun 26, 2004 5:09 pm (#152 of 410)

Let it snow!
I could definately see Amelia Bones being elected as the new Minister (though I'd rather have it be Arthur) for all the reasons Nathan already stated. However, I think Arthur is more likely to be promoted to Head of Deptartment than a retired Auror. He is well liked in the Ministry (I think Fudge even sees him as a bit of a threat), his family is "one of [the wizarding world's] most prominant pureblooded families", he seems quite good at his job as well as a competent wizard, he's a very good guy (honest, hard working, trustworthy, etc.), he's been at the job for quite a while (20 plus years), and he'd certainly have Dumbledore's support... The only thing that seems to count against him is his love of Muggles and Fudge's distaste for him. With Fudge gone and Voldemort on the loose, others may overlook the Muggle-loving thing and support him for the position.

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The Grey Lady - Jun 26, 2004 6:44 pm (#153 of 410)

Sup, Figgy?
I don't think Arthur would like it as Minister. He'd be much happier Head of Muggle Relations or the like.

Has JKR said whether the new Minister is going to be for better or worse?

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Julia. - Jun 26, 2004 8:19 pm (#154 of 410)

74% obsessed! Uconn Jew Crew says: is it August yet?
Nope, she just said that there'd be a new one.

miggs: Is there going to be a new minister of magic in the next books?
JK Rowling replies -> Yes. Ha! Finally, a concrete bit of information, I hear you cry!

From her World Book Day chat.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Jun 27, 2004 10:59 am (#155 of 410)

S.E. Jones, the only problem with the idea of Arthur becoming Head of Magical Law Enforcement is his lack of experience dealing with Death Eaters and Voldemort.

Moody has the necessary experience. But, your point about promoting someone from within is a valid one. Of the four current aurors we know about three are unacceptable.

Dawlish and Williamson are unacceptable as potential sucessors in the event Amelia is elected. Their close association with Fudge would make their ascension to Amelia's post unlikely.

Tonks is an unacceptable candidate because of her age and inexperience.

This leaves only one logical candidate Kingsley Shacklebolt. Kingsley is a candidate for the post for three reasons.

First, he must be highly skilled auror in whom Amelia and Dumbledore place great trust. Because, he is entrusted with the tracking of an exceptional wizard like Sirius Black.

Second, he would be acceptable to the members of the Order as successor to Amelia since, he is a member of the Order himself.

Third, he has experienced combat with Voldemort most highly skilled servant Bellatrix Lestrange.

The subject of Kingsley being in charge of tracking Sirius Black raises an intereting question namely.

Was Amelia Bones aware of the misinformation that Kingsley was providing the Ministry concerning the whereabouts of Sirius Black?

If we answer yes to this question it would in effect have caused the following sequence to occur.

First, Albus Dumbledore made Amelia and Kingsley aware of the events that occurred in the Shrieking Shack two years earlier. Second, Albus revealed the truth about what happened on the 31st of October and 1st of November 1981. Third, after being made aware of truth, they colluded in a campaign to provide misinformation to the Ministry.

Best regards, Nathan

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S.E. Jones - Jun 27, 2004 5:13 pm (#156 of 410)

Let it snow!
I think, Nathan, you are assuming they would make the promotion dependent on what they need, and bureaucracies very often do not. They do it based on seniority, popularity, influence, etc, even in times of war. Also, just because someone has good experience in the field doesn't mean they are going to have what is needed in an office setting. Good generals don't always make good lawmakers. You need a good administrator, a good ambassador, not someone who is going to try and strong-arm which someone who has always worked alone or worked alone with groups of equals apart from everyone else (as Aurors seem to do) may want to do.

As for Arthur's experience with DEs and Voldemort, we don't actually know that. We do know that he worked at the MoM during VoldiWar I. He or Mrs. Weasley made a comment about not working as much as he had recently (when Sirius escaped in PoA) since Voldemort's reign.

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justme - Jul 3, 2004 10:10 am (#157 of 410)

I have a strange theory. Is JKR comparing Fudge to all the European leaders that knew about Hitler (before WW2), and did nothing to try and stop him?

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mrweasley - Jul 6, 2004 12:11 pm (#158 of 410)

Mhm, sounds interesting, justme. Fudge being an analogy to... Neville (!) Chamberlain for instance, who didn't want to believe that Hitler was a "Dark Lord".

If JKR is making references to history like that, however, Arthur Weasley wouldn't be very likely to become the new Minister: He's just too "soft" a character in times of War. Madame Bones sounds like the better person, tough but fair. No?

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Muggle Doctor - Jul 13, 2004 12:43 am (#159 of 410)

My theories:

Fudge is as good as finished as Minister, for the reasons many have stated. As he falls, all his appointees, proteges and close associates will fall with him.

I do not think he was actively in league with Voldy and co, but he will probably be horrified once he is made to face the reality of what has been allowed to happen. He just responded too easily to the blandishments and reassurances of others. His was just a wide and short backside up which Lucius Malfoy's hand could be rammed in order to move his mouth. I think he is too trivial a piece of fluff for Voldemort to order his execution.

I am in the Madame Bones for MoM camp. I do think, however, that Arthur Weasley will be a very busy man - his friendliness to Muggles may lead him to be a special ambassador to the Muggle Government (a fitting tribute to his long years of service in that area).

I do not think that anyone who shows even a trace of softness towards Voldemort would have a chance at power. We have already had that with Fudge, and I don't think the wizarding world will tolerate it. The only up-side of Harry and friends rushing in where angels fear to tread (and one that is almost worth Sirius' death) is the fact that it is now all "in the open" and the right people are finally being believed.

I think that events in book 6 & 7 are going to be HEAVILY based on the events of WW2. Fudge = Chamberlain. Dumbledore & Harry = Churchill insofar as they were thought to be crazy until the danger really is revealed. If this is the case, we will need to have equivalents of pivotal British events in the war (as JKR is British, she will stick with what she knows):

Dunkirk - retreat from Europe when the British army was almost crushed and got away by the skin of its teeth.

Battle of Britain - you CANNOT parallel World War 2 without copying this somehow (aerial defence of Britain, denying Germany the air superiority it needed to invade).

The D-Day landings in Normandy - prelude to the end of the war.

Dolores Umbridge will be lucky if she doesn't end up in Azkaban forever - I think that if the Dementors were still there, she'd probably have been executed. With the dementors gone, some other super-powered guards are needed. Dragons? (Here is a place for Charlie Weasley to come into his own). House-elves? (Look how easily Dobby handled Lucius Malfoy). Okay, the latter was a bit silly...

As far as the Wizengamot etc. and eligibility are concerned, it may have a lot to do with ACHIEVEMENT, perhaps a modified form of oligarchy based upon those who have shown their capabilities. Recall that the Wizarding World is quite mediaeval in its outlook, and things like oligarchic or aristocratic succession would not be the problem that we perceive in our "politically correct" Western society.

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Angel of the North - Jul 13, 2004 10:34 am (#160 of 410)

Tea, dammit
I don't think that Arthur is the best person to be an ambassador to the Muggle Gov - in his way he's as prejudiced to them as Lucius, it's just that the interpretation of the right response is different.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Jul 13, 2004 11:43 am (#161 of 410)

Angel of the North that is an intersting point.

Let me see if I am understanding your point clearly. Are you saying Arthur's prejudices favor Muggles at the expense of others. In contrast to Lucius Malfoy's prejudices which favor only Pure Blooded Wizards in the same manner.

Therefore, Arthur Weasley is too attached to Muggles to be an effective ambassador. Is this an accurate interpretation of your point

Best Regards, Nathan

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Angel of the North - Jul 13, 2004 2:35 pm (#162 of 410)

Tea, dammit
No, I'm saying that Arthur is prejudiced against muggles - sees them rather as pets to be patronised, rather than as equally human beings. It's as if they don't have a voice - the way he handles the floo entrance to the Dursleys shows he has no clue and no tact, same with the ton-tongue toffee and other pranks.

He seems to come up with the legislation because intellectually it's what he ought to do in order to be seen not to be like Malfoy. Both their sons (Ron and Draco) trumpet their father's line, Malfoy with probably more thought than Weasley

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Tomoé - Jul 13, 2004 3:01 pm (#163 of 410)

Back in business
I would say kids rather than pets, but I do agree that Arthur didn't act with the Dursley like one would expect to act when dealing with his/her equals. He blew half of the living room and still expected to be welcome, it's sounds like an clumsy alien bring knowledge to low-civilisated humans in a bad sci-fi movie.

Arthur have still a lot of work to do on his attitude towards Muggles.

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S.E. Jones - Jul 14, 2004 1:21 am (#164 of 410)

Let it snow!
Tomoe: ...but I do agree that Arthur didn't act with the Dursley like one would expect to act when dealing with his/her equals. He blew half of the living room and still expected to be welcome...

You know, strangly enough, I didn't find that to be odd at all. Considering wizarding eccentricities and the Weasleys' personalities, I think Arthur would've been more than understanding if he'd boarded up his fireplace (which is a silly thing to do, at least from a wizarding point of view) and his guests blew the through the next wall to get out. I think he'd welcome them with open arms and a wide grin, despite the dust and debris littering his livingroom and would simply see to the mess when they'd gone. I think this is more a mark of Arthur's congenial personality than him being demining to Muggles.... The same with the ton-tongue taffy. Wizarding children buy these kinds of sweets by the bucket fulls and think it's all sorts of fun to turn into canaries or have blood start coming out your nose. Again, I think he handled it expecting them to react like a fellow wizard who's kid and eaten too much candy, not a Muggle who doesn't find it quite so amusing when odd things happen to them when they eat sweets. I think it's a mark of wizarding eccentricity and wizards' overall lack of knowledge of Muggles, not thinking less of them....

Nathan Zimmerman: Second, Andromeda Black Tonks..... Her knowledge of the Muggle world would in a probability be more extensive than that of Arthur Weasley since, she married a Muggle Ted Tonks.

Nathan, Ted Tonks is Muggle-born, not Muggle....

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Nathan Zimmermann - Jul 14, 2004 9:43 am (#165 of 410)

S.E. Jones, I did not realize that. I have corrected the pot to reflect that.

Angel of the North, that is an interesting view into Arthur Weasley's character and would certainly hinder his ability to be an effective ambassador to the Muggle World.

If an ambassador to the Muggle World were to be appointed. There are a few candidates who spring to mind besides Arthur Weasley.

First, Albus Dumbledore given his wide experience and high intelligence would be an ideal choice for such an ambassador. Also, he possess a high degree of respect for muggles, and squibs.

Second, Andromeda Black Tonks, since Andromeda is descended from the Black family she would be highly respected within the wizarding community. Her knowledge of the Muggle world would in a probability be more extensive than that of Arthur Weasley since, she married a Muggle Born Ted Tonks.

Third, Remus Lupin as a werwolf his status within the wizarding community is affected by his lycanthorpy. Given the fact that Delores Umbridge drafted anti-werwolf legislation that makes impossible for werwolves to obtain work in order to sustain himself and subsist, Remus would most likely have forced to find work in the Muggle world. unless, he was left enough gold on which to live through an inheritance.

Fourth, the Grangers, they are a highly intelligent couple and would be classed as professionals within Muggle society. This provides them with a knowledge of Muggle society that wizards like Arthur Weasley lack. However, their knowledge of the Wizarding World may be limited since their only contact with the Wizarding World is through Hermione.

Best Regards, Nathan

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Gina R Snape - Jul 14, 2004 9:51 am (#166 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
I don't think Arthur Weasley thinks less of muggles. But I do think he has such an utter lack of understanding of muggles that he would be a poor choice for that reason alone. It amazes me (and I know it's done for comic effect, but still...) that Arthur is so baffled by muggles and muggle technology for all the 'studying up' on them he does.

An ambassador to muggles would need to understand muggles better, and especially how to communicate with them. Arthur, for all his fascination, does not.

In any event, I thought the Minster for Magic was the de facto ambassador to muggles. Or are we talking about non-governmental muggles in some capacity?

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Angel of the North - Jul 14, 2004 11:10 am (#167 of 410)

Tea, dammit
I sometimes get the impression that secretly Arthur really wants to be like Lucius. And I'm also wondering whether Arthur was what finally put Snape off joining the light side.

Not because he's ESE, but because if Arthur's the best you've got...

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Gina R Snape - Jul 14, 2004 11:21 am (#168 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
I'm not following your logic, Angel.

Isn't DD the 'best they've got' as it were? How would Snape have known Arthur Weasley in his youth? Also, what is ESE?

And of course, Snape did wind up joining the light side.

On second thought, this probably belongs on the Snape thread or the Arthur Weasley thread. Any mods want to relocate our posts?

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Angel of the North - Jul 14, 2004 11:25 am (#169 of 410)

Tea, dammit
I get the impression that Arthur is about the same age as Lucius, i.e. broke wizarding convention by having Bill straight out of Hogwarts. If he's only 41, then it makes a lot of sense...

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Gina R Snape - Jul 14, 2004 8:13 pm (#170 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Hmmmm. I always thought he was just a wee bit older than Lucius. I wonder if there is a timeline available for Arthur.

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Luis Paris - Jul 15, 2004 3:19 pm (#171 of 410)

I am sorry if I repeat any information, but how do the election works for wizards. Who decides who the next Minister is? How?

I would like to see Arthur becoming Minister, but taking Fudge as an example the Minister For Magic does seem to act as though he were royalty, and seeing that Arthur is poor, and has an obsession for Muggles which makes him appear as a bit of a weirdo to the magical community, I don't think Arthur is respectable enough to become a Minister for Magic, assuming that the new Minister for Magic will be elected by the Magical Community. I believe that if this was the case, the Magical community will choose a person which both transmits strength, power, correct and wise. The perfect choise will be DD, but he's refused so far.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Jul 15, 2004 3:57 pm (#172 of 410)

Luis,

I have often wondered whether the Wizarding World use an electoral process similar to the Muggle World.

Best Regards, Nathan

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Gina R Snape - Jul 15, 2004 4:42 pm (#173 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Luis, if you read the posts in this thread you will see that we've spent some time speculating on the process involved in deciding the next Minister for Magic. But the bottom line is we don't know for sure.

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mrweasley - Jul 26, 2004 4:07 am (#174 of 410)

It is often said that JKR's magic world reflects many aspects of our society. I'm wondering whether she will use the "shake-up at the ministry" to criticize how politics often deals with scandals: Sacrifice a politician but keep the system and the rest of the gang.

So maybe she'll make the ministry put someone on the top chair who isn't any better than Fudge. Dolores Umbridge would be a nice one in this case, I guess... (although I don't believe that myself)

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Paulus Maximus - Jul 26, 2004 6:24 am (#175 of 410)

If Harry presses charges for sending dementors to Privet Drive and threatening to cruciate him, Umbridge won't stand a chance.

Of course, the situation might be dodgy enough that Harry won't consider it worthwhile to press charges...

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Gina R Snape - Jul 26, 2004 7:26 am (#176 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Knowing Potter, it won't even occur to him to press charges!

But I think Umbridge stumbled out of Hogwarts incapable of anything more than occupying a bed at St. Mungo's.

I do hope the political mayhem at the Ministry gets some attention. It will be very interesitng to see how it all goes down. JKR let us know there will be a new MInister, so we at least know there will be *some* mention of it.

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mrweasley - Jul 26, 2004 7:35 am (#177 of 410)

JKR has updated her website - and Arthur Weasley is not going to be the next Minister of Magic (actually her answer was "Alas, no.")

Nobody could be more sorry about that than myself... :-)

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Gina R Snape - Jul 26, 2004 12:41 pm (#178 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Aaaawwww, poor MrWeasley.

Well, I am sticking with my original post that I think it will be Ms. Bones. Just just makes it more certain in my mind.

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toonwarrior - Jul 26, 2004 10:35 pm (#179 of 410)

If you go to the 'rumors' section of JKR's website, there are advertisements on the bottom (can't do this with text version only). Sometimes, it says 'Minister Forced to Flee.' This gives two impressions. 1: Fudge literally being chased (by goblins?). 2: Everybody, including the press, turns against him and starts to blame him for everything. If the first theory is true, then maybe there will be a new minister who is especially keen on magical creature unity and rights for goblins, elves, centaurs, giants, werewolves... Just a quick question: is there really a position of Muggle Government ambassador? That would be cool, but it sort of blows away the secrecy of the wizarding world -Peace out

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mrweasley - Jul 27, 2004 3:39 am (#180 of 410)

There has been a lot of discussion about this ad, toonwarrior. The thing is that the ad is from "The Quibbler" which makes the truthfulness of the headline... well... at least questionable. It's hard to tell whether - after the genuine Harry Potter interview - the Quibbler has changed its approach to news stories or whether it's still stuffed with a lot of waffle... :-)

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Phelim Mcintyre - Jul 27, 2004 8:55 am (#181 of 410)

Good Evans. The logic I used is this. There will be A new minister of magic in the next book. We do not know when. The wording used by JKR suggests that there will only be one in the next book. As JKR has also said that Arthur will not be the new minister of magic this suggests that this rules out book 6. I can see him becoming Minister at the end of book seven if he survuves. Loyal friend of Dumbledore, not driven by a pure-blood mania in the way both Voldemort and Fudge are. A new type of minister for a new era.

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Chris. - Jul 27, 2004 9:03 am (#182 of 410)

HBP: 16th July 2005: the most anticipated day in history
I think Elphias Doge will be the next Minister for Magic. My reasons--

Doge was part of the original Order and he was part of the Advance Guard. Dumbledore must trust him.

Doge is the name of the chief magistrate of Venice or Genoa. It comes from the Latin dux, duc- "Leader"

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Luke E.A. Lockhart - Jul 27, 2004 2:50 pm (#183 of 410)

I think either the next Minister will be a major character, or someone we've never heard of. I mean, I know certain characters have turned out to be important who were only mentioned in passing, but I've seen posts asking whether people think some random Muggle walking on the street will be "the one to unite the Wizarding and Muggle worlds". I'm sorry, but that's going a little far. In my opinion, the next Minister of Magic will probably be an entirely new character, or maybe Madame Bones.

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timrew - Jul 27, 2004 2:54 pm (#184 of 410)

Middle-aged Harry Potter fan
Elphias Doge might not end up as Minister For Magic; but he could end up as his assistant. This would make him, 'Deputy Doge'.

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Padfoot - Jul 27, 2004 3:18 pm (#185 of 410)

I like 'Deputy Doge'. Jo's characters have names sort of like that. So it works for me. You can't resist can you Tim?

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Nathan Zimmermann - Jul 27, 2004 3:34 pm (#186 of 410)

Well since Arthur Weasley has been ruled out as the Minister of Magic what possible candidates does that leave. I see three candidates as possibilities.

Candidate 1: Amelia Bones as the head of the magical law enforcement division she has the necessary experience to guide the ministry through the crisis.

Candidate 2: Alastor Moody, as a former auror and with a great amount of experience catching Death Eaters, he has the necessary experience to guide the ministry through the crisis.

Candidate 3: Tiberius Ogden as an elder of the Wizengamot he has the political experience and seniority to be a candidate.

Just my one knut's worth of thoughts.

Nathan

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Luke E.A. Lockhart - Jul 27, 2004 3:37 pm (#187 of 410)

Moody as Minister would be hilarious! I hope that's who it is! Paranoid MoM - the possibilities are endless.

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S.E. Jones - Jul 27, 2004 3:43 pm (#188 of 410)

Let it snow!
I'm voting for Madam Bones. She is the current head of the Dept. of Magical Law Enforcement and seems to be very respected. That's the position Crouch once held and the Dept. that Fudge once worked for. Maybe it is usual for people to be elected out of that Dept such as you usually go from Governor to US Senator to President in the States. Yes, not everyone does, but that is usually the way people work their way up the power scale.....

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mrweasley - Jul 27, 2004 3:43 pm (#189 of 410)

I love it, Luke! "Mad Eye Minister", it is a catchy title, don't you think? And of course, the new government motto in times of the Second War has to be Moody's as well: "Constant Vigilance !!!"

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Prefect Marcus - Jul 27, 2004 3:44 pm (#190 of 410)

"Anyone can cook"
Moody as Minister would be so sublime! The misadventures go on and on!

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Nathan Zimmermann - Jul 27, 2004 5:53 pm (#191 of 410)

S.E. Jones, that is an interesting pointIt makes me wonder if the outgoing minister nominates his successor. Much like the Roman Emperors did with beginning the succession of the Emperor Nerva in 98 A.D. and culminating in the reign of the Emperor Marcus Aurelius that ended in 180 A.D,.

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Leila 2X4B - Jul 27, 2004 8:12 pm (#192 of 410)

I'd be smegged off. I'd be mad as hell, man. If some git in a white coat designed me to croak just so that he could sell his new android with go-faster stripes.
Minister Mad-Eye? You must be joking. Although it would be a laugh, it is a scary thought. Can't you see him obliterating his paper-airplane memo's that fly to his desk or hexing those who send him Howlers. I'll second Madam Bones.

Leila

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Luke E.A. Lockhart - Jul 27, 2004 8:41 pm (#193 of 410)

But that's what would be so great about it! I'm not saying it will happen; I'm just saying it would be hilarious if it did. I think Madam Bones is more likely, though.

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mrweasley - Jul 28, 2004 2:04 am (#194 of 410)

Well yes, Sleeping Beauty, I guess we're joking. And, of course, highly amused just by imagining what an effect a "Mad Eye Minister" would have on the whole Ministry... Who knows? JKR has so far always been able to surprise us... :-)

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T Brightwater - Jul 28, 2004 10:42 pm (#195 of 410)

The fact that JKR said "Alas, no," in her answer to the question about Arthur being the next MoM makes me wonder if it might be someone else we won't like very much. Oh, please, not Umbridge!

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drippan - Jul 29, 2004 6:12 am (#196 of 410)

I have to agree that Amelia Bones will be the next MoM after Fudge is impeached. I don't know if they have a Vice MoM, but we've never heard of it.

Also, do wizards vote for MoM or is it assigned by a committee?

Now, if Madam Bones gets moved up, that would leave her spot open in the Law Enforcement section. Maybe Arthur will get moved up! This would put him in charge of Aurors and everything else in that department.

DripPan

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Chris. - Jul 31, 2004 7:14 pm (#197 of 410)

HBP: 16th July 2005: the most anticipated day in history
I would like Madame Bones as the MoM. After all, she is fair.

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Luke E.A. Lockhart - Jul 31, 2004 7:39 pm (#198 of 410)

What are everyone's theories on when the new Minister will take office? Do you think Fudge will be impeached near the beginning of HbP, near the end, or in Book 7?

My opinion is somewhere around the middle of HbP...

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Chris. - Jul 31, 2004 7:50 pm (#199 of 410)

HBP: 16th July 2005: the most anticipated day in history
I can see coverage of Fudge's sacking in the Daily Prophet. Do you think there will be some sort of initiation ceremony?

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ShelterGirl - Aug 1, 2004 7:34 am (#200 of 410)

I think that Mad Eye would insert his wand into his back pocket and obliterate his own buttocks to keep from having to take a desk job...

My vote is Madam Bones. Smile

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Shake-up at the Ministry (Post 201 to 250)

Post  Elanor on Sat May 21, 2011 3:17 am

Ann - Aug 2, 2004 8:06 pm (#201 of 410)
I agree with T Brightwater. "Alas, no" (in JK's answer to the question about Mr. Weasley getting the job) sounds to me like whoever the new Minister of Magic is, he or she is not going to be someone we have voted for, or would think qualified. Malfoy or another of the Death Eaters might be the worst, but if they were actually sent to Azkaban, that might be a fairly serious disqualification, whoever does the choosing. A new character seems the most likely, maybe Umbridge's younger, slicker sister. And, whoever it is, is not going to be helpful to the Order of the Phoenix.

After all, if Harry and Dumbledore had the Ministry behind them, it would make it all too easy!

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Paulus Maximus - Aug 2, 2004 11:48 pm (#202 of 410)

Wasn't Hitler in prison before he came to power?

I wouldn't put it past any of the DEs to gain power, even those who have gone to Azkaban.

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TomProffitt - Aug 3, 2004 5:17 am (#203 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
Unfortunately we just don't know how the ministry works.

But, as one of my Political Science professors put it, "Whoever controls the selection of candidates controls the political process."

It could easily be that all of the "better" candidates we would like to see don't have the political machine in place to get themselves on the ballot, much less elected (or selected).

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T Brightwater - Aug 3, 2004 7:01 am (#204 of 410)

Very good point, Tom. I suspect that with Voldemort on the loose, the MoM is going to want a "hard-liner." As I understand it, no one at the Ministry knows about Umbridge's quill or her unauthorized use of Dementors. I shudder to think of it, but it's possible she might get the job.

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contess lillein asend - Aug 3, 2004 2:44 pm (#205 of 410)

I just started re-reading GOF and I am begining to suspect that Diggory and Crouch are up to something.

We know Diggory does not like Harry. But in the Dark Mark scene, do you notice that after they shot all the stunners, Mr. Diggory says "...I think we got THEM (emphasis mine). Then he goes to look in the woods and finds Winky, brings her out and still states "we got THEM". Immediately Mr. Crouch goes in. Was it a signal.

Also he contacts Arthur early in the am about Mad Eyes dustbin problem. How did he find out? Did the DE's tell him, there was a fight and the muggles found out and the plan can't go forward unless they head off the "Improper use of magic lot". Sure worked out Crouch Jr.

If all this is true, what if Diggory is the next Minister. Big problems ahead.

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T Brightwater - Aug 3, 2004 5:49 pm (#206 of 410)

There's an interesting idea, Contess. Amos Diggory strikes me as being a bit of a blunderer who's quick to take offense and jump to conclusions; he'd be a terrible Minister. I don't remember him being mentioned in the trial scene, so there's no indication of how he voted, but it wouldn't surprise me if brooding on his son's death had turned him against Harry, even though in the first shock he didn't appear to blame Harry for Cedric's death.

As for him saying "we got them," English doesn't have a pronoun of indefinite gender, so in common speech "them" is sometimes used when the speaker doesn't want to say "him or her". Crouch would have realized immediately that Winky wouldn't have summoned the Dark Mark; if she was in the vicinity, his son must be there too, in his Invisibility Cloak.

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Gina R Snape - Aug 3, 2004 6:29 pm (#207 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Yes, Crouch knew immediately that his son had been there. But what about Diggory? Or anyone else?

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T Brightwater - Aug 4, 2004 9:36 am (#208 of 410)

I was trying to say that Crouch wouldn't have needed a signal from Diggory to know that his son was out there, and that Diggory's use of "them" may have been a shortcut, since he had no way of knowing whether the culprit, or the house elf for that matter, was male or female.

You hear it all the time, things like "Some_one_ has lost _their_ backpack." "Whoever it is on the phone, I don't want to talk to _them_." [emphases mine.] It was previously the convention to use the masculine pronoun in those cases; I'm not sure what is considered correct usage now.

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MickeyCee3948 - Aug 7, 2004 4:08 am (#209 of 410)

Avatar courtesy of Gwen
I don't believe Amos would be so ready to forgive the dark lord and go aganist Harry and DD. After all LV did have his son killed. LV also says in GF that he had one faithful servant at Hogwarts in the cemetary scene. If Amos was on his side with Couch Jr., it means he would have had two sevants there.

I have a question for the group. Is Mafalda Hopkirk who is continually writing Harry about the Improper Use of Magic from the MOM the Weasley cousin Mafalda or do we have two persons with that name?

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T Brightwater - Aug 8, 2004 7:17 am (#210 of 410)

Mafalda Hopkirk is an adult witch employed at the Ministry. The Weasley cousin, who didn't make it into the story at all, is apparently Harry's age or younger.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Aug 12, 2004 11:10 am (#211 of 410)

I have a question. Now that Fudge has acknowledged that Voldemort has returned. We have been have been told that Fudge will be removed from office in some manner.

Will the acknowledgement result in the coming backlash that will remove Fudge from office be expanded to a wider purge involving those within the ministry who are suspected Death Eaters?

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Ann - Aug 12, 2004 1:28 pm (#212 of 410)

I don't think so. Whoever is going to be the new minister of magic is not going to be good news. Remember, when JKR was asked whether it would be Arthur Weasley, she said "unfortunately, no" (or words to that effect). Given that she is a past mistress of understatement, that suggests that the new minister is going to be very bad indeed, perhaps even as bad as Fudge, though probably in a different way.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Aug 12, 2004 2:29 pm (#213 of 410)

Ann that may tie in with another statement that J.K. Rowling made. when she said that Lucius Malfoy would be very busy in the future and trhe readers would be seeing more of Narcissa .

Is it possible that New Minister of Magic is in fact going to be Lucius Malfoy.

Nathan

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MickeyCee3948 - Aug 12, 2004 3:03 pm (#214 of 410)

Avatar courtesy of Gwen
Nathan - How could he talk his way out of being caught in the MOM with all the other DE's? With the fear we have seen of LV, I doubt all of Lucius's gold would even be able to shorten his sentence.

My thoughts on JKR comments on Lucius run more along the line that with no dementors to watch them at Azkaban I expect LV will get him out of there or any other prison he is put in.

Mikie

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Land of the Shire - Aug 13, 2004 11:44 pm (#215 of 410)

I do think Lucius Malfoy can talk his way out of a sentence to Azkaban.

I'm mostly rehashing an argument I read earlier on the Forum, but I don't remember when or on which thread or from whom.

Did anyone actually see Lucius attacking anyone? With as much respect and influence as he has, he could most likely convince those in power that he was in the wrong place at the wrong time and was actually trying to help Harry, save him from the other Death Eaters.

And I did read in The Ultimate Unofficial Guide that at some point in the first millenium a pope Lucius succeeded a pope Cornelius. Not concrete, I know, but there is some evidence that Lucius' name came from that particular pope. That pope Lucius was the one who apparently engaged King Arthur in battle, just as Lucius Malfoy engaged Arthur Weasley in battle at Flourish & Blotts.

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Archangel - Aug 14, 2004 12:33 am (#216 of 410)

Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end. -- Semisonic
"Did anyone actually see Lucius attacking anyone? With as much respect and influence as he has, he could most likely convince those in power that he was in the wrong place at the wrong time and was actually trying to help Harry, save him from the other Death Eaters. "

But wouldn't the other DEs' mouths construe this as outright betrayal? They'll surely come after him if he does this. Plus, wouldn't the other DEs testify against him if he ever takes the Wrong Place, Wrong Time alibi?

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TomProffitt - Aug 14, 2004 6:03 am (#217 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
"But wouldn't the other DEs' mouths construe this as outright betrayal?" --- Archangel, referring to Land of the Shire's post

He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, Barty, Jr, et al, were not angry with the DE who escaped Azkaban, because they escaped Azkaban. They were angry because they escaped and did nothing to aid the return of the Dark Lord. So, Lucius could talk his way out of Azkaban and into the Ministry and have the DE be quite pleased with him.

Actually, though, the idea of Lucius Malfoy becoming the next Minister for Magic just doesn't seem plausible to me. It seems to me that that would be too much for Jo to explain in a way that any of the readers could believe it.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Aug 14, 2004 9:09 am (#218 of 410)

In regards to Lucius Malfoy becoming the next minister of Magic. There are several examples throughout history that could be seen as the basis for the idea. Lech Walesa, Nelson Mandela, and Adolf Hitler served prison sentences before being elected as the leaders of their respective nations. It is possible that J.K. Riowling could draw from these examples to enable the election Lucius Malfoy to be elected the next Minister of Magic.

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Chris. - Aug 14, 2004 4:58 pm (#219 of 410)

HBP: 16th July 2005: the most anticipated day in history
Couldn't find another, appropriate, place to put this.

What if the Ministers of Magic are just "caretakers" of the rule of the Wizarding World and they're waiting for a royal to take back the control?...

Very LOTR-ish I know.

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Ann - Aug 14, 2004 7:15 pm (#220 of 410)

Harry Potter and the Return of the King? Has a nice Ring to it!

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Gina R Snape - Aug 24, 2004 1:10 pm (#221 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Well, not so silly when one considers that the next book is called the Half Blood Prince.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Aug 24, 2004 2:08 pm (#222 of 410)

In the United Kingdom of Great Britian and Northern Ireland. The Head of State is the Queen Elizabeth II while, the Head of Government is the Prime Minister. I wonder if the title of Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince is an indication of similiar system of government.

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Lina - Aug 26, 2004 2:25 pm (#223 of 410)

Kate's new T-shirt and henna tattoo
When I read the JKR's answer about Arthur Weasley "Alas, no!" it sounded to me as this would not be a good idea at all. Something like he is a good person but it takes something more than that to be a good minister.

Yet, English is not my first language, so I might be wrong.

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Weeny Owl - Aug 26, 2004 10:40 pm (#224 of 410)

When I read the JKR's answer about Arthur Weasley "Alas, no!" it sounded to me as this would not be a good idea at all. Something like he is a good person but it takes something more than that to be a good minister.

That's how I read it.

I don't believe JKR will give the Wizarding World another horrible Minister. With this being Voldie War II, a true leader with the best interests of the people in mind would be needed. After Fudge's horrible performance, the people are going to be very demanding in their leadership.

As for the ferret's father, I see him busy escaping from Azkaban with the others, plotting and planning mayhem as far as Imperioing people, killing people, and creating havoc as much as possible.

I don't see how he could explain his presence in the Ministry that night. When asked why he was there, what could he say that would be believable, especially when two Aurors (Tonks and Kingsley) can testify to him being aligned with the Death Eaters? Not only that, but he already got out of a prison sentence once, didn't he? Once can be explained, but twice? Not only that, but after the Quibbler interview with Harry, people started believing him. He named names, and if he's telling the truth about Voldemort being back, why would he lie about the Death Eaters Voldemort called by name? I think Harry's testimony would be taken at face value now.

As for shaking up the Ministry, I want that nasty Undersecretary prosecuted (make her write lines with her own quill. Nah, even I'm not that mean), plus I want to know if guards are usually in the Department of Mysteries, and if so, where were they that night? I also want to see Percy fired or at the very least demoted.

This isn't Ministry related per se, but what member of the Order should have been on guard duty that night? Wasn't someone always there? That's where Arthur was attacked. The Order may have a traitor in their midst... or a victim.

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The One - Aug 27, 2004 4:16 am (#225 of 410)

Open minded sceptic
I don't believe JKR will give the Wizarding World another horrible Minister.

IMHO it makes no point from a story point of view to replace Fugde with another incompetent minister. If Fugde is to be replaced, and he is, the next minister should either be a better one or a far worse one.

My guess is a better one, but you never know, it might be a Death Eater.

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Blast - Sep 7, 2004 10:03 pm (#226 of 410)

I think I'm back!
Well the Minister For Magic before Fudge was female, I tend to go with a Female for being the next minister.

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S.E. Jones - Sep 9, 2004 6:47 pm (#227 of 410)

Let it snow!
This is not my post. It was originally posted by another member and is being moved here to prevent duplicate threads.

Who is going to be the next Minister of Magic

HPHouse - Sep 8, 2004 3:33 pm
A few weeks ago, JK Rowling posted something on her site that says Fudge is going to be kicked out of office in "the Half-Blood Prince", but she does not say who it is. Guys this is big news, I mean I can't believe that there isn't a thread on this already. A new Minister of Magic could spell BIG trouble for Harry, Ron, Hermione, and the Order of the Phoenix if he/she turns out to be a Death Eater. Does anyone have any ideas on who might be the replacement for Cornielius Fudge in "the Half-Blood Prince"?

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Classicsquid592 - Sep 8, 2004 3:49 pm (#228 of 410)

This is truly odd. I was just thinking about starting a thread on this very topic. I hope this goes well House.

One thing on JKR's homepage that struck me in particular was the "unfortunately" tagged at the end of her answer to the question about whether or not Arthur Weasley would be minister. Therefore, we can safely assume that the new minister will be as bad or worse than Fudge. So far, I have seen nothing to contradict my ideas about Lord Voldemort gaining power in the ministry. Considering that the world is now in the midst of a full-fledged war I think that Fudge wil either be replaced by Voldemort himself, an unknown DE who will pass some sort of cleverly disguised law that ends up helping Voldemort come to power, or perhaps some sort of tyrant who decides to in his war against Voldemort's armies declares war on Giants, Goblins, and any other race that has ever joined up with a dark lord in the past. I think the latter seems most likely as he could be extremely popular at the very beginning of his term.

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Kip Carter - Sep 8, 2004 3:56 pm (#229 of 410)

co-Host with Steve on the Lexicon Forum, but he has the final say as the Owner!
In her "F.A.Q. About the Books" on her J.K. Rowling Official Site, JKR answers the question, "Will Arthur Weasley be the new Minister for Magic?" with "Alas, no." That's one down quickly!

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Aud Duck - Sep 8, 2004 4:28 pm (#230 of 410)

"I know I have to beat time when I learn Music." "Ahh, that accounts for it. He won't stand beating."--Alice in Wonderland
It may very well be someome that is not on Voldemort's side, but would unknowingly make laws that would help his cause. Just think of all of the nasty legislation that a new person under Umbridge's tutelage could pass that would make life as a goblin, house elf, or centaur almost unbearable. Already horrid werewolf legislation could be "improved." And, they could do it all in the name of protection against Voldemort. Respectable DEs would certainly lobby for such laws, so popular demand would probably be high. A well-intentioned Voldemort hater could do as much damage as a DE. Think about Crouch Sr's regime in the first war.

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Classicsquid592 - Sep 8, 2004 5:31 pm (#231 of 410)

I could definitely see another Crouch as minister. He would hurt the order a great deal, but he would also be overwhelmingly popular at the very beginning.

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James Greenfield - Sep 12, 2004 12:45 am (#232 of 410)

If I may repeat what I said in a previous post, I think it highly likely that Madame Bones will be the next Minister of Magic. Consider that in boook 5, we learn that she is head of the Department of Magical Law Enforcement, which as we have already learned, is the largest department in the ministry. She therefore has the necessary administrative experience. We also saw at Harry's trial that she is strict but fair, and will not stand for any nonsense. That is probably what the Wizarding World wants, now that Lord Voldemort and the remaining Death Eaters are again an open threat.

It is, of course, very possible that she would consider it the duty of Aurors, and only Aurors, to control the DE's, and be very opposed to having an "outside" group such as the Order of the Phoenix trying to help. Historically, law enforcement agencies are often very jealous of the special powers they have, especially temporary ones. This could put people like Tonks and Kingsley in a very compromised position.

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Phoenix song - Sep 12, 2004 8:15 am (#233 of 410)

Dumbledore did not speak for a moment; he looked as though he was trying to make up his mind about something. At last he said, "I am sure. I trust Severus Snape completely." (HbP, p. 549)
I'm not sure, and I haven't the time to check out the information, but wasn't Crouch the head of Magical Law Enforcement during the time that Voldemort disappeared? He was slated to get the MoM job before little Jr. went on a "Crucio" spree. Maybe the Magical Law Enforcement job is traditionally thought to be the next step before MoM.

If this is true, then it would seem that Madame Bones would be next in line.

Barbie

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S.E. Jones - Sep 12, 2004 3:32 pm (#234 of 410)

Let it snow!
Yes, Crouch was Law Enforcement head. He's the one who gave the Auror's permission to use Unforgivables on DEs and sent Sirius to prison without a trial....

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Jessalynn Quirky - Oct 2, 2004 4:33 pm (#235 of 410)

Even if it doesn't happen, I think Lupin should be the Minister. It would make life so much easier for him, and would get the Order a lot of power.

Maybe wizards vote on who gets to be Minister?

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El Cronista de Salem - Oct 3, 2004 12:57 am (#236 of 410)

We know for JKRowling that there will be a new minister of magic in the 6th book.

We know too that he won't be Arthur Weasley nor Harry Potter (this last was obvius).

Who will be then?

Before reading the fifth, we would think in the "nice" Lucius Malfoy. I did. But know, ladies and gentlemen, I coulnd't imagine a Minister of Magic officine in a cell of Azkaban... A little bit difficult, no?

I have think in Amelia Bones. I don't know why, but I think that the Minister will be a woman. We know of JKRowling that she likes give to men and women the same opportunities and jobs (see the teachers) and I don't have objetion, :-) for this reason, I think that it will be a woman.

Amelia Bones is a great bet in my opinion. She works in the Ministry, and she is wellknown.

What do you think? There will be politic parties in the magic world? JKR could answer that... :-p

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timrew - Oct 3, 2004 2:37 pm (#237 of 410)

Middle-aged Harry Potter fan
Personally, I think the next MOM will be Voldemort, and all his DEs will be ministers.

The object of all novels is 'conflict'. Therefore, I think book 6 will be very dark indeed.

The OOP will have to sink to an all time low, if they are to triumph in book 7.

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total hatred - Oct 4, 2004 2:52 pm (#238 of 410)

That if Dumbledore doesn't change his mind not to be the Minister of Magic. He can always leave Hogwarts to McGonagall's care

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Jessalynn Quirky - Oct 4, 2004 3:32 pm (#239 of 410)

I don't think DD can leave Hogwarts until he finishes teaching Harry how to destroy Dork Lard.

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TomProffitt - Oct 5, 2004 3:33 pm (#240 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
"Personally, I think the next MOM will be Voldemort, and all his DEs will be ministers." --- timrew

Tim, I'll give you that that would make serious conflict and high tension reading, but I just can't envision a believable scenario where that could take place. I don't believe the ground work has been properly placed, at least not according to Jo's writing style. It would be a shock from out of the blue lacking Jo's regular subtle clues.

No, Tim, I think the next Minister will be a little more mundane than He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named.

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timrew - Oct 5, 2004 3:44 pm (#241 of 410)

Middle-aged Harry Potter fan
Oh well, maybe it'll be someone who will go along with Voldemort....

Oh! I just made an argument for Fudge keeping his job!

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TomProffitt - Oct 5, 2004 3:45 pm (#242 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
I couldn't tell if you were serious or not, Tim. I sometimes have trouble detecting dry humor in print.

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timrew - Oct 5, 2004 3:50 pm (#243 of 410)

Middle-aged Harry Potter fan
No, I was serious, Tom. I'm a firm believer in the 'dark before the dawn' school of writing - but perhaps I went too far suggesting Voldie would become MOM.

I just think the 'scatalogical objects will make contact with the cool-air circulator' before book 7 resolves it all!

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Classicsquid592 - Oct 5, 2004 3:54 pm (#244 of 410)

I have also predicted Voldemort or one of his DEs will be the next minister. The other possibility is a tyrant, someone even more extreme than Crouch in VWI. I think that Bones will come very close to being elected (she may even be elected) but something will happen to keep her from becoming minister. I have formed a set of predictions that definitely fit your "dark before the dawn" philosophy. Classicsquid592 "Predictions for books six and seven" 8/28/04 5:49pm Classicsquid592 "Filius Flitwick" 8/24/04 6:34pm I am assuming that if you are a writer, our styles would be very similar, in that we both tend to get overly dark.

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Tomoé - Oct 8, 2004 7:52 am (#245 of 410)

Back in business
I think it will be Mme Bones and her quality will be also her fault. Just like in the hearing, when she was the one who doubted Mrs Figgs's version because of the running/gliding issue. She won't be as nasty as Fudge in OoP, but she'll never pretend something didn't happened like Fudge did with the Aunt Marge business or ship DE in Azkaban without a trial as Crouch Sr did. Both of them can be useful, but unfair, while Bones could show fair rules that are bothersome or even harmful to the Order.

I think the "alas" means Arthur would have been a more helpful Minister for the order than Amelia Bones.

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total hatred - Oct 8, 2004 12:02 pm (#246 of 410)

I think Madam Bones will do just fine. I have a theory that Madam Bones was the girl staring at Sirius during the OWLs. What if Madam Bones has feelings for Sirius or they are lovers. What will be her reaction if she found out that Sirius had died? Take to account the fact that her brother Edgar was killed by DE.

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Dr Filibuster - Oct 8, 2004 1:43 pm (#247 of 410)

Sue, from Northwich, England.
From the little information we have on Madam Bones, I'd say she reminds me of Prof. MacGonagoll. Strict but fair.

Not the type who'd fall for that cheeky rulebreaker Sirius Black.

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Tomoé - Oct 8, 2004 2:13 pm (#248 of 410)

Back in business
Dr Filibuster -> Not the type who'd fall for that cheeky rulebreaker Sirius Black.

Cheeky rulebreakers like Mundungus, Fred and George, which could put the Order in troubles. But that doesn't mean she'll be a bad Minister, just that the Order will have to play nicely.

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Dr Filibuster - Oct 8, 2004 2:20 pm (#249 of 410)

Sue, from Northwich, England.
I agree Tomoe, I think she'd make a good Minister for Magic. It sounded as if Tonks respected her.

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total hatred - Oct 8, 2004 10:25 pm (#250 of 410)

So how do you explain James and Lily. The definite example of a extremely law abiding student marrying a rule breaker. As far I know, James is far more worse than Sirius and even much worse than the Weasley twins combined.

I based my assumption that Madam Bomes might be the girl behind Sirius when he took the Owls on Chapter 28 Order of the Phoenix pg 642. As you know it, students are taking the test alphabetically. It is logical to assume that Bones will be seated behind Black. Based on the description, the girl seems to have a major crush on Sirius. It is also fishy that Sirius refers Madam Bones on her first name. That only implies that he personally knew her.

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Shake-up at the Ministry (Post 251 to 300)

Post  Elanor on Sat May 21, 2011 3:19 am

Tomoé - Oct 8, 2004 10:41 pm (#251 of 410)
Back in business
Good catch total, this give food for thoughts.

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TomProffitt - Nov 5, 2004 10:57 am (#252 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
After reading some posts on the Dolores Umbridge thread, I realized that the problem with Fudge's successor is Albus Dumbledore.

That's right, Albus Dumbledore is a big problem for the good guys.

The leader of the loyal opposition is the non-political Albus Dumbledore. Everyone who has seen the light and is both aware of and in opposition to Lord Voldemort's return defers to Albus Dumbledore.

The leadership figure poised to aid the Wizarding World in the hour of it's need does not want the job of Minister for Magic. That's a problem.

It's quite difficult to put a follower before the undecided masses and say, "Choose him to lead."

If it were not for the prophecy I would say that the best thing for Dumbledore to do would be to step down as the Headmaster of Hogwarts and assume the title of Minister of Magic.

That's why Fudge was in power and in position to do so much damage, Dumbledore didn't want the job. He had better find a better replacement this time.

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T Brightwater - Nov 5, 2004 11:48 am (#253 of 410)

Brilliant, Tom! But I think DD is thinking differently than we are.

It's rather hard not to compare Dumbledore to Gandalf - Gandalf could have easily taken power himself, and when Denethor went mad, he did take command temporarily. (Compare this to Dumbledore laying down the law to Fudge after the battle at the MoM.) However, that wasn't what he was there for. Gandalf was all too aware that he could have been corrupted by power; that's why he refused the Ring. Saruman tried to go that route, and look what happened to him...

There's also Terry Pratchett's Carrot Ironfoundersson. He's apparently the rightful king, he has the judgment, charisma, and strength to do it - but he chooses to remain a policeman, saying that the best thing a real king could do is put in an honest day's work.

Dumbledore in power would be a benevolent dictator - not by his own choice, but by other peoples'. The WW would be happy to let Dumbledore think for them, but he wants them to think for themselves - even at the cost of serious setbacks for his cause. (And if anyone else hears the faint echo of "My kingdom is not of this world" - well, you're just as sane as I am.)

Having said all that, I'm with you, Tom - he'd better find a better replacement. Maybe that's where the Half-Blood Prince comes in?

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TomProffitt - Nov 5, 2004 12:02 pm (#254 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
I think DD is thinking, "The most important thing I have to do in my life is see to it that Harry Potter arrives to confront Lord Voldemort in a manner that gives Harry the greatest number of advantages that I can give him. I can best do this as Headmaster of Hogwarts School of Wizardry and Witchcraft."

That's why the best man for the job of Minister has to do something else.

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Lina - Nov 8, 2004 3:54 pm (#255 of 410)

Kate's new T-shirt and henna tattoo
Well, I'm not sure if this fits better in the Dumbeldore thread, but I don't think that keeping Harry alive and helping him to defeat Voldemort is the most important thing in his life. He has done several at least as important things as this one in his LONG life. I think that the most important thing in his life is to raise responsible young wizards out from children and to try to prevent another Lord Voldemort, and that is the job he can best do at the school.

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Jessalynn Quirky - Nov 9, 2004 5:11 am (#256 of 410)

It still could be the most important thing in his life--if Harry's not even born yet, he'd rather do something than sit there for a hundred years and twiddle his thumbs (although that does have its benefits....)

You're right, we should move this to the Dumbledore thread.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Nov 9, 2004 7:09 pm (#257 of 410)

I originally posted this last year ome of the Mugglenet forum and I would like to share the ideas. I had with everyone here as well.

First, the hearing that Harry has before the Wizengamot In Chapter 8 of Order of the Phoenix reminds me of an impeachment scenario in which the Congress of the United States even though it is primarily a legislative organ acts as a judicial organ.

When a President of the United States is impeached. The articles of impeachment are drafted by the Houses of Representatives once drafted the articles are presented to the full house for a vote.

If the articles are approved by the House of Representatives, copies of the articles of impeachment are then sent to the to the Senate and Supreme Court. At the trial which follows The Senate of the United States acts as the jury while the Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court acts as the judge.

In order to obtain a conviction a super majority is needed to vote in favor of conviction i.e. 2/3 of the body + 1. There have been numerous impeachments attempts in US History. The theee most notable are the 1804-05 impeachment of US Supreme Court Asoociate Justice Samuel Chase, the 1868 impeachment of President Andrew Johnson, and the 1999 impeachment of President William J. Clinton.

Also, The English Parliament which is predominantly a legislative body acted in a judicial capacity in 1649 when it tried Charles I for treason.

Second, the trial before the full Wizengamot and use of the same courtroom in which the infamous Death Eaters were tried. I believe is an effort by Fudge and his backers to equate Harry with the evil symbolized by the Death Eaters and if that fails to intimidate Harry into silence by a demonstration of power and authority in order to maintain the Status Quo.

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TomProffitt - Nov 9, 2004 7:59 pm (#258 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
I think Harry was tried by the "full Wizengamot" because that was the only way for Fudge to legally supersede Amelia Bones as prosecutor of the case. I imagine this leaves little doubt as to Ms. Bones feelings for Mr. Fudge.

I wonder how many other political bridges Fudge burned in his paranoia about Dumbledore.

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Annika - Nov 9, 2004 8:04 pm (#259 of 410)

I agree Tom. In addition, it was an excellent literary device in showing us that the Ministry is not of one mind. That is to say, there are those who support the Ministry and there are those who support Fudge, but that the two are not mutually exclusive.
Annika

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T Brightwater - Nov 10, 2004 9:20 am (#260 of 410)

I agree with Tom and Annika. I got the impression that most of the Wizengamot would have gone along with Fudge until Dumbledore showed up. It's interesting that in spite of all Fudge & co's best efforts to discredit him, DD still has a lot more credibility with most of the Wizengamot than Fudge does.

I also wonder if any of those present remembered DD's question about what the Dementors were doing in Little Whinging, and DJU's response. I'd like to think that incident will come out and be the final nail in Umbridge's political coffin.

Amelia Bones for Minister!

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Madame Pomfrey - Nov 10, 2004 5:56 pm (#261 of 410)

Here,Here!

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Nathan Zimmermann - Nov 10, 2004 6:48 pm (#262 of 410)

Part of the gap I think is due in large part to Dumbledore's past achievements he defeated Grindlewald. He was a key player in the first war with Voldemort while, Fudge was just a junior member of the ministry staff who lacked the credentials of Bartimeus CrouchSr. Millicent Bagnold, Amelia Bones or Griselda Marchibanks

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TwinklingBlueEyes - Nov 10, 2004 10:13 pm (#263 of 410)

"Character is doing the right thing when nobody is looking"
I think that may be part of the gap, but not a large part. One thing that has stuck me is the thing about wizards not being known to be logical. Dumbledore's precise, logical explanation of the situation and the rules shook them up. To the illogical, logic is hard to deny.

And remember, Dumbledore was Chief Warlock on the Wizengamot, a post I am sure was not lightly earned.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Dec 7, 2004 6:39 pm (#264 of 410)

TBE, I agree which is why I believe that his character holds many more secrets.

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Gina R Snape - Jan 2, 2005 12:37 pm (#265 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Hey, Kip. Can you save this thread? It'll be really great to refer back to it when HbP comes out, and we see how Fudge gets the axe and who gets the position next.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Jan 2, 2005 2:20 pm (#266 of 410)

I hope Kip can it would quite interesting to see how many of our ideas proved accurate.

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Phelim Mcintyre - Jan 3, 2005 4:58 am (#267 of 410)

I'm not sure who's going to be minister of magic (I guess Ameila Bones) but how will Fudge be brought down?

In her chat JKR says that she suspects Umbridge will have criminal charges brought against her. Now what for? Abuse of centaurs? Abuse of pupils and power at Hogwarts? Misuse of Dementors? This would then drag Fudge's name into the situation and he would be forced to resign taking Percy with him (a move to the Centaur office I presume). Percy becomes persona non grata with even Penelope refusing to have anything with him.

Could this be the more pleasent thing that takes Harry away from the Dursley's? To testify against Umbridge? Yes I have put this on the Shortest Stay thread but everyone is too caught up in birthday parties - how obvious!!!

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Saralinda Again - Jan 3, 2005 9:59 am (#268 of 410)

My Patronus is a Crumple-Horn Snorkack
What would DJU undergo prosecution for?

Well, she was prepared to use an Unforgivable curse on a minor, and I would not be a bit surprised to learn that siccing dementors on minors in a muggle neighborhood is illegal, too.

Yeah, I'd like to see 'em fry her fundament "real good," as they say, for those two charming little lapses in anything approaching good judgment.

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Weeny Owl - Jan 3, 2005 10:05 am (#269 of 410)

In her chat JKR says that she suspects Umbridge will have criminal charges brought against her.

What chat was that?

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T Brightwater - Jan 3, 2005 10:43 am (#270 of 410)

That quill has to be illegal, too.

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TomProffitt - Jan 3, 2005 10:55 am (#271 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
"That quill has to be illegal, too." --- T Brightwater

I'm sure it is by Muggle standards, but the Wizarding World seems to have different ideas about punishments and what constitutes risks to health and well being. After all, Crouch/Moody didn't get sacked for turning Draco into a ferret. First years serve detentions in the Forbidden Forest.

The Blood Quill could have gotten Umbridge into professional trouble as a teacher, but I doubt it is illegal. The students are exposed to too many other potentially dangerous things that would never happen in a muggle school for me to think the quill would be worth more than a slap on the wrist.

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MickeyCee3948 - Jan 3, 2005 12:36 pm (#272 of 410)

Avatar courtesy of Gwen
Phelim Mcintyre-I like your theory of Harry testifying at Umbridge's trial. That would definitely be a happy occasion and I agree more logical than a birthday party.

Mikie

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scoop2172000 - Jan 3, 2005 2:06 pm (#273 of 410)

If Filch used to be able to string up students, I'm sure Umbridge could get away with the blood quill (which we knew she used on at least two students: Harry and Lee Jordan.) Probably, it wasn't illegal for her to authorize whipping, a punishement she was prepared to use against Fred and George.

Unethical, yes. Sadistic, yes. But there probably weren't any laws against corporal punishment of students.

Now, there are laws against magic in the pressence of muggles (the Secrecy laws), so sending those Dementors to the Dursley's neighborhood definitely was illegal.

Threatening to use an Unforgiveable Curse probably carries a harsh penalty as well, given that the actual use of an Unforgiveable warrants a life sentence.

If Umbridge goes to trial, I'm sure Harry would be called to testify, and it's possible other students, especially Hermione, might be called too.

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Gina R Snape - Jan 3, 2005 2:52 pm (#274 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
I agree with everything you said, scoop, except the part about the Dementors. I could see her being charged with 'unauthorized use of a dementor' perhaps. Maybe even attempted murder (attempted soul-sucking?) But I doubt it would be illegal for her to send a dementor to a largely muggle area. I say this because muggles cannot see dementors. They feel them in the form of a major depressive episode, but do not see them, so do not know there is a magical creature about.

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Eponine - Jan 3, 2005 3:25 pm (#275 of 410)

Yes, well, when said dementer tries to suck out the soul of innocent muggle bystander...

I wonder if Umbridge told the dementers to attack anyone who was with Harry too?

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Gina R Snape - Jan 3, 2005 9:38 pm (#276 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Yes, I wonder that as well. I can't help but wonder if Dementors will suck out the soul of any conveniently located person. If that were the case, though, all of muggle England would be walking around as soulless, depressed people.

:resists urge to make tasteless joke:

But yeah, they were certainly going after Dudley along with Harry. So she could be brought up on charges for that as well.

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Saralinda Again - Jan 3, 2005 11:13 pm (#277 of 410)

My Patronus is a Crumple-Horn Snorkack
I wonder whether Umbridge's total disingenuousness at Harry's trial -- just short of flat-out lying -- can be interpreted as tantamount to perjury. I mean, she and her cohorts are sitting there as Harry claims to have been attacked by dementors and acting as if Harry has to be a liar.

I don't recall her actually saying something actionable, but her silence was at the least immoral and unethical.

Considering all the care that had to be taken when dementors were ringed 'round Hogwarts, I'm fairly sure that requisitioning a couple of them to sic on a child (or children) in a muggle neighborhood should be actionable. Fudge certainly seemed appalled that she had done so.

Perhaps they could nail her for the stunning attack on Minerva McGonagall, also. DJU can just barely manage a rationale for the attack on Hagrid, but not the one on Minerva.

Sigh

Don't suppose that irritating coughs and obnoxious 1950s hairstyles are actionable, though, are they?

Oh well, one can dream ...

S/K
"Consistently guessing wrong about Harry Potter since 2002."

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total hatred - Jan 4, 2005 4:03 pm (#278 of 410)

I believe that someone conviniently transported the Dementors and he or must be stalking Harry. When he or she saw Harry, the Dementors are released. I believed that the Dementors might be under some sort of restraining charms. Remember the Dementors are blind and has no way of distinguishing their target.

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James Greenfield - Jan 31, 2005 12:37 am (#279 of 410)

Don't forget that all of Umbridge's Educational Decrees were fully supported by Fudge. When the students from Hogwarts get home and begin telling their parents what kinds of things DJU did during the past school year, I expect many of the parents will be quite upset not only with her but with Fudge. Any politician who messes with the education of children, and especially one who subjects them to any kind of unusual harm or risk is surely risking being asked to resign.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Feb 1, 2005 7:14 pm (#280 of 410)

I read an interesting theory, in which it was argued that Fudge is closest to the Machiavellian ideal of the proper ruler. I am incllined to disagree with the theory because, I believe that Voldemort's action are more connsistent with the Machiavellian principles and theories.

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Ms Hagrid - Feb 2, 2005 8:37 am (#281 of 410)

Nathan - I did a lot of research on Machiavelli and his writings in college, and I agree with you. If Fudge were truly Machiavellian, he would have taken steps to neutralize Dumbledore as soon as he became minister, rather than waiting for signs of active opposition.

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ex-FAHgeek - Feb 2, 2005 3:11 pm (#282 of 410)

Even moreso, look at Umbridge's opinion of Fudge:

"Somebody had to act," breathed Umbridge... "They were all bleating about silencing you somehow - discrediting you - but I was the one who actually did something about it...." (OotP, Scholastic hardbound, pg 747.)

Fudge is definitely not Machiavellian. He was only willing to take legitimate action to prove that Harry was wrong (however deluded his own opinions were. He went through proper and acceptable channels, even if the results were awful.) Umbridge was willing send out Dementor assassins.

Earlier in the book, Harry makes a point that "Fudge might have many faults but Harry found it extremely hard to imagine him ordering goblins to be cooked in pies." (OotP, Scholastic hardbound, pg 193.) Fudge is paranoid, selfish, and delusional, but he's not reckless or evil. He has a conscience, but is able to be thoroughly manipulated by characters such as Lucius Malfoy and Dolores Umbridge that they can get away with whatever they want and he'll be none the wiser to the consequences. For example:

Dear Cornelius... Having trouble maintaining order with the shoddy discipline Dumbledork has maintained to this point... need more centralized authority to regulate punishments to misbehaving students... Sickening sweet salutations, Dolores.

*waits for owl to return*

Dear Dolores... Here's a new educational decree... I know you'll use it wisely and justly... Signed, Cornelius.

*Dolores giggles* Yay! Now I get to use my new quill...

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Archangel - Feb 4, 2005 3:19 am (#283 of 410)

Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end. -- Semisonic
Edited by Feb 4, 2005 2:20 am
I think there's something Machiavellian about Fudge's actions or lack thereof -- from his ascent to the Ministry as head honcho to his staying power as Minister.

Fudge wasn't the popular choice to become Minister. Dumbledore and Crouch Sr were. Yet, he ended up becoming the head honcho. Getting elected is not easy so it would have taken master maneuvering on his part to even get mentioned as a possible candidate. So just imagine the things he did to win that appointment. Deals with prominent society figures (Malfoys, Notts?) would have been definitely made -- temporary allies, temporary loyalties.

At the start of his term, he consulted with DD regularly. Crouch Sr, whom he could have easily asked to resign, was delegated to the International Cooperation department which I think was a step-down from his previous post. I suspect these are just to keep up appearances. He wanted to ensure the public that the things he'll be doing has been discussed with the wise and great DD. He wanted Crouch Sr because of his international knowledge. Sure. However, this could be just a case of keeping one's friends close and enemies closer. Very Machiavellian, if you ask me.

Now, his inactions in OoP are very cunning and very specific to his goal i.e. stay in power. To stay in power, he needed to discredit DD and Harry and ensure Voldemort's return becomes a running joke. Even though not everyone believed the press releases about DD and Harry, he succeeded in planting that seed of doubt in the minds of general public. He even got control of Hogwarts via his toad Umbridge. Guess what? If the MoM battle didn't happen, he would have gotten away with it. He would have stayed in power for one more year.

Fudge doesn't embody all of the traits or did all the things that Machiavelli spoke of but he (Fudge) had and did some that Machiavelli required from his concept of a ruler.

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Phelim Mcintyre - Feb 4, 2005 3:22 am (#284 of 410)

we must remember that Crouch Sr lost his popularity because of his son being caught with Death Eaters. Fudge is full of his own importance. Becuase of this he is jealous of DD, jealous of his stature, his influence, his power and his popularity. Crouch Sr was never a threat.

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Archangel - Feb 4, 2005 3:52 am (#285 of 410)

Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end. -- Semisonic
Crouch Sr was never a threat.

I have to disagree with this. To someone who becomes the head honcho after they were perhaps the 3rd or 4th or last pick of the lot, there'll always be residual feelings of jealousy to those people whom the public first preferred. It doesn't matter if in public's perception that Crouch Sr presented a real threat to Fudge's administration or not, to Fudge, he'd always look over his back because this guy was *supposed* to be the Minister and he still clearly commands respect from his peers.

Didn't Crouch Sr withdrew his name from consideration? If he did, I guess he would have done that out of um...politeness over what happened with his son. I'm not sure of the right term but in my country we call that delicadeza.

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timrew - Feb 4, 2005 4:50 pm (#286 of 410)

Middle-aged Harry Potter fan
Let's face it. Fudge is deluded by everybody. Dolores is barking, and everyone knows it but Fudge.

The guy is a pure loser, who should resign forthwith.......

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Phelim Mcintyre - Feb 5, 2005 3:18 am (#287 of 410)

Crouch Sr withdrew his name because of the support vanishing after his son being caught with Death Eaters. The rumours and gossip then undermined his position as a possible Minister of Magic. We know all this from Goblet of Fire. The Death Mark at the Quiddich World Cup reminded him of his failure. He was not a threat because of his association by default with Voldemort. Why should Fudge have worried about Crouch Sr when the fact that his son went to Azkaban followed Crouch where ever he went?

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Catherine - Feb 5, 2005 10:50 am (#288 of 410)

Canon Seeker
My sense of things about Crouch, Sr. is that he lost popularity and public support, and that the job "went to" Fudge.

I am unable to locate where it states that Crouch, Sr. "withdrew" his name. I'd love to know where that quote is, since I seemed to have missed it. Sirius seemed to allude, in GoF, to Crouch's mania to catch "one more" Death Eater to compensate for the loss of the top job, and perhaps regain some old popularity.

It's been a long while since I read Machiavelli, but I must say that Fudge doesn't really come to mind when I consider Machiavelli's methods.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Feb 5, 2005 4:47 pm (#289 of 410)

Crouch sr. is a complex man his character has many facets. He reminds me of Hammurabi in his manner of metting out justice in that he believes in the philosophy of an eye for eye. Yet, his nature is such that he can be swayed by his wife who is in adition to being his wife is also his chief counselor, the relationship between Mr. and Mrs. Crouch reminds me of the relationship between the Byzantine Emperor Justinian I and his wife the Empress Theodora.

A parallel can be drawn between two aspects of their character First, Justinian allowed himself to be sawyed by Theodora in legal and religious matters where the welfare of the population was concerned.

Second both Justinian and Mr Crouch were utterly devestated by the deaths of their wives. When they both died the spark and fire that they culled within their husbands possessed died and they became shadows of their former selves.

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ex-FAHgeek - Feb 7, 2005 9:35 am (#290 of 410)

---quote--- When they both died the spark and fire that they culled within their husbands possessed died and they became shadows of their former selves. ---end quote---

I know I'm probably the only Crouch Sr. fan on these boards, but I find him to be one of the most sympathetic and tragic characters in the series. He finally makes an exception to the rules by which he's lived his life to fulfill his wife's dying wish (and there's no doubt in my mind that saving his son from Azkaban is the only time in his life he's ever broken his principles), and in the end this one act of mercy results in his murder (as well as directly leading to the rebirthing of Lord Voldemort.) It's so sad how an act of kindness can backfire so horribly.

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Eric Bailey - Mar 2, 2005 6:27 pm (#291 of 410)

How about someone who's been mentioned quite a bit in the books, but we haven't met, yet: Andromeda Black-Tonks? Given that she's the only one of the notorious Black sisters we haven't met, she's bound to turn up at some point. She'd be a Churchill-like hawk to follow the Chamberlain-like Fudge who would have very personal reasons to take down Voldemort once and for all. Given her family, she'd know politics and intrugue like the back of her hand, having learned it from the cradle. She'd also be able to win the backing of the old families that are anti-Voldemort. She'd bring a classicly Slytherin cunning, ruthlessness, and opportunism to the job, as someone who'd know the enemy intimately. But, I figure she's been working behind the scenes against Voldemort for years.

She'd likely keep Percy right where he is, as he does seem good at his job, and is very smart and ambitious.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Mar 2, 2005 8:23 pm (#292 of 410)

Eric, that is an interesting idea. Although, Dumbledore's support will be key and this raises the question of whether dumbledore support someone who vould have the potential of being more ruthless than Crouch Sr.?

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Eric Bailey - Mar 3, 2005 1:30 am (#293 of 410)

Well, I figure Andromeda's been involved since the first war. It'd be fitting, in a story sense, that since Voldemort has Bella as his right hand, Andromeda's been supporting Dumbledore. After all, somebody had to hide Sirius, and allow the Order to use the Black estate, and Andromeda would be the acting Head of the Black family (with the two ahead of her, Sirius and Bella, fugitives or in jail for over a decade), AND her daughter is part of the Order.

Also, I'm looking at the next Minister's role from a historical perspective. Since JKR modelled Voldemort on Hitler, and Fudge is very much a Chamberlain type, that gives us an idea what the next Minister will be like. I could see Andromeda having written about the Ministry of Magic sleeping and not seeing the obvious warning signs.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Mar 3, 2005 10:41 am (#294 of 410)

Eric, I agree I think that if Andromeda were elected MoM that she and Amelia would be a formidable team and that the triad of Andromeda, Amelia and Albus, could orchestrate things in such a way as to give Harry more of an advantage in the finnl confrontation. The comparison of Voldemort to hitler is interesting. I wonder whether Albus and Amelia could be modeled on allied leaders with Harry perahaps being equated to an Eisenhower like figure.

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TomProffitt - Mar 3, 2005 8:07 pm (#295 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
Voldemort doesn't really strike me as a Hitler figure. I've considered it a number of times, but it doesn't seem quite right to me. Fudge as Chamberlain is appropriate.

There have been a number of similar periods in history. Voldemort may be more of a Hannibal with a Fabius yet to arise(or maybe he has and I just haven't identified him, yet). Harry makes a great Scipio Africanus.

This theory was off the cuff, but I like it the more I think about it. I guess I'd better find the right thread for it.

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Eric Bailey - Mar 3, 2005 10:16 pm (#296 of 410)

Hitler was the comparison JKR made regarding Voldemort, which, I suppose, is why the Death Eaters are so Master Race/Final Solution oriented.

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ex-FAHgeek - Mar 4, 2005 12:41 pm (#297 of 410)

Edited by Mar 4, 2005 11:41 am
---quote--- Voldemort doesn't really strike me as a Hitler figure. I've considered it a number of times, but it doesn't seem quite right to me. Fudge as Chamberlain is appropriate. ---end quote---

I find the Fudge = Chamberlain comparison to be fairly loose. Chamberlain was well aware that Hitler was a threat and took action to nullify it. His particular plan toward that end, appeasement, failed miserably, but it does make him very different from Fudge, who doesn't even want to believe that Voldemort is present. There is a very big difference between failing and not even trying.

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TomProffitt - Mar 4, 2005 2:44 pm (#298 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
I equate appeasement with ignoring the truth. While Fudge ignored the very existence of Lord Voldemort, Chamberlain's appeasement policy was a policy that ignored the nature of Hitler, which is strikingly unbelievable when Hitler put everything he planned to do in Mein Kampf including the murder of 6 million Jews and the invasion of the Soviet Union. Hitler described in his book the very method he was using against Chamberlain to get what he wanted. That is what makes the comparison appropriate, both ignored facts which were (relatively) in front of them. I think Chamberlain had less excuse than Fudge.


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Nathan Zimmermann - Mar 7, 2005 9:00 am (#299 of 410)

Tom Proffitt, your mention of Fabius (Fabian) raises an interesting question will the Wizarding World tolerate a regime that employs the hit and run tactics while avoiding a pitched battle until such time as the forces opposing Voldemort are either strong enough to face him in a direct confrontation or they have whittled away the opposing forces sufficient as to create an advantage for Ministry forces.

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TomProffitt - Mar 7, 2005 9:07 am (#300 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
Dumbledore is Fabius, I think. The wizarding World will probably want a more direct strategy. But until Harry (Scipio) is ready, Dumbledore will continue with his Fabian strategy.

This parallel may not fit the ethics as well as the WWII analogy, but it fits the strategy much better.

EDIT: Dumbledore is so Fabian in his thinking that he won't even consider becoming the next Minister of Magic. I doubt any minister who replaces Fudge will be as willing to be as stand offish as Dumbledore. I hope this doesn't lead to a Canae.

EDIT EDIT: I really really hope it doesn't lead to a Canae.

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Shake-up at the Ministry (Post 301 to 350)

Post  Elanor on Sat May 21, 2011 3:20 am

Nathan Zimmermann - Mar 7, 2005 10:36 am (#301 of 410)
If there is a Cannae like battle it is possible that it will occur in HBP. One of the other questions this raises is will the Ministry bring Moody out of retirement to train the Aurors and Hit Wizards on how to battle Death Eaters such as Bellatrix Black Lestrange, Antonin Doholov and Augustus Rookwood?

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Gina R Snape - Mar 7, 2005 2:01 pm (#302 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
The question about training aurors is a good one. We know there have not been many new aurors lately. We also don't know who trained her. But she seems rather comfortable with Moody. Nevertheless, they will need more aurors. There may even be a recruitment call. Or a relaxing of their standards. I wonder if they will tap the DA for any students ready to finish up at Hogwarts.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Mar 7, 2005 9:16 pm (#303 of 410)

Gina, I think it is more likely that a recruitment call will go out because, the negative impact of a relaxtion of standards could possibly outeigh the benefits of such a move. One of the other key areas that Aurors will need to be trained in I think is how to repel and subdue the Dementors.

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TomProffitt - Mar 7, 2005 9:26 pm (#304 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
I have to disagree with y'all. The ministry will probably recruit more folks for the Department of Magical Law Enforcement, and will likely lower the standards to do so. But, their elite force will retain it's high standards. They might increase the number of qualified aurors, but they won't relax the standards. That's not the way elite forces are used.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Mar 7, 2005 9:33 pm (#305 of 410)

Tom Proffitt, I agree I think that standards for Aurors will remain as high as they are now. I agree I see Aurors and Hit Wizards as the elite fighting forces of the Ministry. They are the best of the best in the wizarding world which why is I think that a recruitment call is more plausible than a relaxation of standards. In terms of real world analogies I see the Aurors as a combination of MI-5, Mossad and the French Foreign Leigon.

The Aurors will have a difficult time during the second war because, I am not certain whether any of the Aurors has faced a Dementor or a Giant.

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Ms Hagrid - Mar 10, 2005 8:01 am (#306 of 410)

Hopefully, the need for additional Aurors will result in a really outstanding DADA teacher coming to Hogwarts for Harry's 6th year!

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Steve Newton - Mar 10, 2005 9:55 am (#307 of 410)

Librarian
If the war is on now, and we have reason to believe that it will be pretty much over in 2 years, it is too late to train aurors to fight it. I think that the MOM has to use the resources that they have on hand.

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TomProffitt - Mar 10, 2005 10:30 am (#308 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
But the Ministry doesn't know it's going to be pretty much over in two years, Steve. They would, I hope, prepare for the long haul.

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Steve Newton - Mar 10, 2005 10:41 am (#309 of 410)

Librarian
That's true, but, any aurors who enter training now will probably arrive too late to do much good. The MOM doesn't have the luxury of knowing that this is a limited time only war.

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Tomoé - Mar 10, 2005 11:10 am (#310 of 410)

Back in business
Maybe they'll train some Hit Wizards into Aurors, it should take less than 3 years.

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Ms Hagrid - Mar 10, 2005 1:03 pm (#311 of 410)

Voldemort's first "reign of terror" seems to have lasted about ten years or so - and was only brought to a halt when Voldemort himself made the "mistake" of attempting to kill little Harry Potter. During this time, there was a high casulty rate among those fighting Voldmort and the Death Eaters.

Given this experience, it makes sense that the ministry would be expecting another long haul and high attrition rate among Aurors, and would therefore make every effort to ensure new Auror candidates are "trained up". I'm sure they would not overlook Hogwarts students with aptitude in DADA!

Keep in mind also that very few people know about the prophecy at this point in time, so it's unlikely that the Ministry would be pinning all their hopes on Harry saving them!

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I Am Used Vlad - Mar 10, 2005 1:09 pm (#312 of 410)

I Am Almighty!
But can we count on the Ministry to do something that makes sense? A lot depends on who the new Minister is.

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Ms Hagrid - Mar 10, 2005 1:20 pm (#313 of 410)

Vlad - That's true... But whoever the new Minister turns out to be, he/she should at least recognize that Voldemort has returned instead of trying to ignore or suppress that knowledge. I would think that working to increase the number of Auror candidates would proceed logically from that.

My fear is that there might be an over-reaction now that the wizarding world has "wised up". People falsely accused of being Death Eaters, for example...

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Steve Newton - Mar 10, 2005 1:38 pm (#314 of 410)

Librarian
While we don't know who the new Minister will be, it seems clear that they will have to be acceptable to Dumbledore. At least I interpret the ending of OOTP to be a demonstration that Dumbledore is now the power in the Wizarding World. He orders the Minister to do things, and is impatient at being kept waiting.

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Mrs Brisbee - Mar 10, 2005 2:37 pm (#315 of 410)

My fear is that there might be an over-reaction now that the wizarding world has "wised up". People falsely accused of being Death Eaters, for example...--Ms Hagrid

You're right, this could happen. Weren't people writing hysterical letters into the Daily Prophet by the end of OotP, claiming to have spotted Voldy strolling past their house? Many people are probably on the edge of panic, and unfortunately Fudge's downfall (because he chose to be such an idiot) is happening right at this critical juncture when a stable and level-headed government in place would have been most helpful.

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Dumbledore - Mar 10, 2005 2:53 pm (#316 of 410)

(Albus Percival Wulfric Brian)
Although it is very unlikely this could happen, I might as well throw the idea out there, in regards to what Ms. Hagrid said. How about a sort of Salem Witch Trial of accused Death Eaters? Hypothetically, if Dolores doesn't get booted from the ministry she could try to "improve" her image by being firmly on the anti-Voldemort side. If anyone was to do this, Umbridge would be.

Edit: Wow, just re-reading my own post made me laugh at the absurdity of it. Feel free to shoot it down! Heck..you can't blame a girl for trying! ;-D

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Ponine - Mar 10, 2005 2:56 pm (#317 of 410)

I reject your reality and substitute my own!
Dumbledore - I think that is an excellent idea!?!? I mean - surely the sorting hat would be able to tell who were too happy to oblige and who was really under the imperius curse?!? OMG!! Ok, obviously, I read your post too fast, because upon rereading it, I realize you said absolutely nothing to that effect at all. *blushing furiously*... But I like my idea, too!

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Ms Hagrid - Mar 10, 2005 6:29 pm (#318 of 410)

At the end of OotP, we were told (by Draco) that his dad and "the others" were in Azkaban.

To me, it doesn't seem very likely that a "normal" trial occurred and wasn't mentioned in the Daily Prophet. It's possible that a "star chamber" sort of trial happened - which would be disturbing. (I had that possibility in mind when I wrote what I did above.)

It's also possible that the Death Eaters are being held without bail in Azkaban pending a trial that will occur at the beginning of book 6. Harry would leave Privet Drive early to meet up with his friends so they can be witnesses at this trial. At this point, JKR could let us know about changes in the Ministry. Does this make sense?

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Nathan Zimmermann - Mar 10, 2005 8:52 pm (#319 of 410)

Ms. Hagrid,

That is an interesting idea because, if a trial was to occur Harry, Hermione, Neville, Ron, Ginny and Luna would in all likelihood be called as witnesses along with Dumbledore, Shacklebolt, Tonks and Moody. It would also do much to repair the tarnished image of the Ministry that likely occurred due to Fudge's admission and Umbridge's disgrace. Also it would give Harry a happier reason to leave 4 Privet Drive.

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Eric Bailey - Mar 11, 2005 12:49 am (#320 of 410)

"Weren't people writing hysterical letters into the Daily Prophet by the end of OotP, claiming to have spotted Voldy strolling past their house?"

Well, yes, but maybe it wasn't hysteria. Maybe Voldemort just likes to go on the occasional relaxing walk. Y'know, go to the park, have a picnic...

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Joanne R. Reid - Mar 11, 2005 10:48 am (#321 of 410)

Hi,

It seems that our discussion has almost come full circle. That is, we are speculating on who will become the next Minister of Magic and what he/she will do.

I would hope that the WW has learned something from its own history. Barty Crouch, Sr., was one extreme and Cornelius Fudge the other. I would think that the next MoM would be someone quite sensible, strong and universally accepted by the WW. I'm not sure who, but I would think that Amelia Bones has the inside track.

With regard to hit wizards and aurors, I was thinking that the ability to ward off the Imperious Curse would be an important part of the selection process. Since Harry has already demonstrated that ability, I'd think he'd be a logical candidate for more training. However, that might have to wait until he's graduated or come of age.

Thanks,

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Gina R Snape - Mar 11, 2005 1:48 pm (#322 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
:tries to imagine Voldemort having a picnic:

You think he'd play fetch with Nagini?

Certainly, I could see Harry and company going to the Ministry to be witnesses at a trial. But I'm not so sure that would be a happy circumstance under which Harry would get to leave 4 Privet Drive.

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timrew - Mar 12, 2005 5:08 pm (#323 of 410)

Middle-aged Harry Potter fan
LOL, Gina! Now I'm imagining Voldemort throwing a frisbee and shouting, "Nagini - fetch!"

On a more serious note, I think that book 6 will be very dark, with possibly Voldemort or Pettigrew installed as Minister of Magic; and ordering the release of all the Death Eaters in Azkaban.......

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TomProffitt - Mar 12, 2005 5:39 pm (#324 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
That's too dark, Tim. I think Jo has already said something to the effect that OP was the darkest, or the low point. I don't recall enough of the quote to search it though. It might be in the Edinburg chat.

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frogface - Mar 13, 2005 3:38 am (#325 of 410)

I think most of us are rooting for Amelia Bones to be the next Minister. And if it is going to be a character we've already met, she has my vote. But I'm hoping more that it will be someone who we haven't met yet, I think that it would be a nice break to the pattern if the next DADA teacher wasn't a new character, but the Minister for Magic is.

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Madame Pomfrey - Mar 17, 2005 8:32 am (#326 of 410)

When JKR answered our question if Arthur would be our next minister of magic she answered "Alas,No." This tells me we will not like the next minister or maybe its someone untrustworthy.So,I cant see it being Amelia but I also dont think the ministry would allow VM or Pettigrew(not too bright)into office unless of coarse there are more DE in the ministry than we know and they overtake the ministry.I shudder to think if DJU finds loop holes in the evil she has done and is pardoned,she being the ministers asst.could very well take the ministers place.

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Gina R Snape - Mar 17, 2005 8:45 am (#327 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
I was rereading OOtP last night and a line struck me. We know how Fudge became resentful and distrustful of Dumbledore, with the paranoid idea that DD was trying to unseat him as Minister for Magic. Sirius Black tells Harry that Dumbledore 'didn't even apply for the position.'

This suggests that people nominate themselves and some sort of governing body chooses among them. If this is the case, then the question is who wants to be Minister for Magic next?

I suppose this doesn't preclude said governing body from approaching potential candidates (I recall something about Barty Crouch Sr. being a shoe-in at one point until the trials). But who would want to take over as Minister during the second rise of the Dark Lord? Either somebody on Voldemort's side, or someone particularly interested in a 'good fight.' Arthur does not strike me as either of these people.

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Albus Silente - Mar 17, 2005 9:31 am (#328 of 410)

Can convicted people apply? IIIIKES! LUCIUS Minister of Magic!!!

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Madame Pomfrey - Mar 17, 2005 10:23 am (#329 of 410)

I could see Percy Weasley nominating himself although I dont think he's experienced enough for ministry qualifications.Gina,that poses an interesting question.Who would want that job during VM rise?A DE most probably.Oooh we are in for a hard battle aren"t we?

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pottermom34 - Mar 17, 2005 3:44 pm (#330 of 410)

I wouldn't put it past **gulp** Lucius or **gulp again** Umbridge to some how weasle their ways into it. Please, I deserve dungbombs for that one.

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Ms Hagrid - Mar 17, 2005 4:19 pm (#331 of 410)

Perhaps Amos Diggory? He's definitely got a score to settle with Voldemort!! And remembering his attitude towards Winky, perhaps some issues in dealing with "non-humans". That mixture could make for some interesting confrontations with Dumbledore, et al....

What do you think???

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Nathan Zimmermann - Mar 17, 2005 7:26 pm (#332 of 410)

Ms. Hagrid, that idea is most intriguing. Dumbledore would need to persuade him that it is necessary to take a more balanced approach in treating with non-humans.

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Eric Bailey - Mar 17, 2005 10:32 pm (#333 of 410)

While the Ministry does some dumb things, they're not pro-Voldemort, as an organization, so a known publicly known Death Eater isn't going to get the job. The only way Lucius gets it is if Voldemort wins, outright, and Hogwarts is turned into a Death Eater training camp. As I can't see the main action being moved away from Hogwarts (None of our main cast would be able to be there, after all), Lucius won't be Minister.

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Ms Hagrid - Mar 18, 2005 6:14 am (#334 of 410)

Eric - you make a very good point. The only way Lucius could end up being Minister is if he were somehow able to convince everyone that his presence at the battle that night was completely innocent; which is highly unlikely since he'll have a couple of Aurors (Kingsley and Tonks) AND Dumbledore testifying against him.

He may be able to get out of Azakban by claiming to be under the influence of the Imperius Curse - but would the wizarding world, at this point in time, be willing to accept as Minister somehow who has demonstrated vulnerability to the Imperius Curse? Somehow, I don't think so - unless no other viable candidates were available... I think we're safe from Lucius as Minister!

Umbridge, on the other hand, is such a delightfully horrible character (in a plot line sense, of course) that I would be suprised if we've seen the last of her in this series! Since the only people who can give disqualifying evidence against her are underage students, she might still have a chance...

Still, I would much prefer to see either Amelia Bones or Amos Diggory since I can't have Arthur. :-)

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Archangel - Mar 18, 2005 6:57 am (#335 of 410)

Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end. -- Semisonic
Perhaps a coup d'etat is in the offing? Public trust in the current institution, I would think, is at an all-time low. Surely, there'd be some sectors in society who'd feel that there is an urgent need for radical changes.

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Ms Hagrid - Mar 18, 2005 9:15 am (#336 of 410)

Archangel - Very true... Any particular groups/sectors in mind?

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Joanne R. Reid - Mar 18, 2005 9:23 am (#337 of 410)

Hi,

I was thinking about the Wizengamot in relation to the new Minister of Magic.

If we think back into the history of the Moot as a system of government, we see the beginnings of democracy. A moot is a gathering of the eldest and wisest members of a tribal group. Together, they determine who shall lead, adminstrate and perform the actitivities of the entire group.

Membership in a moot is by acclamation. Everyone can attend meetings of the moot. Everyone can speak at the moot. But only those who are acknowledge as the leaders can determine actions. If, because of his/her wise counsels, a person is always consulted, then that person has become a leader.

If the WW is small, then the idea of a moot or town meeting form of government is not inconceivable. And, if the moot is the form of government, then the choice of MoM will be theirs.

Dumbledore is back as leader of the Wizengamot. He has been thoroughly and completely vindicated. Everyone will look to him for his guidance. Few will go against his judgment.

So, if I'm right (insert giggles, guffaws and other forms of merriment here), then we have to ask who is Dumbledore's favorite?

OK, so I've painted myself into a corner. I have no idea who Dumbledore would want as MoM. I can only say that we've seen him interact with Dolores, Amelia and Percy. Of those three, I think the choice is clear. At the same time, DD is 150 years old. He's been interacting with the Wizengamot for decades.

OK, I've shot my wad. Thanks,

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Weeny Owl - Mar 18, 2005 12:36 pm (#338 of 410)

I never took the "Alas, no" as meaning anything other than JKR knowing she'd disappointed the people who were for Arthur to be Minister.

She needs to start wrapping things up, and I believe the new Minister will be a good one.

Even if HBP is dark, it doesn't have to be dark from current events. She's going to be answering questions in that book, and she said she'd be explaining the circumstances of Tom Riddle's birth, more about the Marauders and their backgrounds, and clearing up other things.

I think there's enough darkness present if she tells us what really happened at Godric's Hollow, and covers some of the backstory of other characters. If we get some of Snape's background, I think that would be enough darkness.

She doesn't need to add even more misery by having a horrible Minister.

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Dumbledore - Mar 19, 2005 9:46 am (#339 of 410)

(Albus Percival Wulfric Brian)
"She needs to start wrapping things up" -Weeny Owl

Yikes..it's true. After HBP we only have one more to go. I don't even like to think of it!

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Gina R Snape - Mar 19, 2005 4:34 pm (#340 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Yeah, bittersweet to consider. Isn't it just?

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MickeyCee3948 - Mar 30, 2005 5:02 am (#341 of 410)

Avatar courtesy of Gwen
Ms Hagrid "Umbridge, on the other hand, is such a delightfully horrible character (in a plot line sense, of course) that I would be suprised if we've seen the last of her in this series! Since the only people who can give disqualifying evidence against her are underage students, she might still have a chance."

What about Professor McGonagall, Hagrid and Snape. They also saw and felt the "enthusiasm for her job" of the old toad. I don't think Umbridge will be able to remain in the high position she maintained in OotP but I agree that we probably haven't seen the last of her.

Mikie

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Saralinda Again - Mar 30, 2005 8:39 am (#342 of 410)

My Patronus is a Crumple-Horn Snorkack
Professors Trelawney and Flitwick also have first-hand testimony to give about Umbridge's excesses. Trelawney's is tricky, because while she has more testimony to share, she may have a trifle less credibility.

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Ms Hagrid - Mar 31, 2005 7:56 pm (#343 of 410)

I think that when I wrote that I was thinking about her confessing to setting Dementors on Harry and her willingness to use an unforgivable curse. Either of those would be serious crimes, which would disqualify her from a government post I would think.

Her other "excesses" - good word - weren't criminal in nature. After all, being a sadistic b**** is not against the law (more's the pity); and erring on the side of excess in trying to pursue leads to Sirius Black might be considered a virtue by some at this point in time. As I said before, I don't think we've seen the last of her!

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Miriam Huber - Apr 1, 2005 1:31 am (#344 of 410)

I like the idea of Amos as new ministier. Not necessarily Amos as a person, but:

- the wizarding world will be extremely frightened now, panicking, and I am sure they will want a "strong hand", not another Fudge

- I have the feeling that, as Harry gets older, JKR wants him and us to learn the lesson that the world is not just good and bad. (Umbridge! I am totally convinced that she is no DE. Not everybody who is nasty and morally rotten is a DE!)

So, obviously, I am thinking of someone like Barty Crouch sen., someone fighting "in bad ways on the good side", if you know what I mean.

And he would, of course, expect total loyalty, especially from "the boy who lived" and Dumbledore ...

It is just my feeling, that the new minister for magic will not be really helpful to Harry and Dumbledore. The saving of the WW from Voldemort will not be the task of the ministry or Harry and Dumbledore triumphantly commanding some minstry forces, but THEIR, no: HARRY´s task.

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haymoni - Apr 3, 2005 5:38 pm (#345 of 410)

I still think that Amos Diggery will die shortly.

He will try to avenge his son's death.

The man has a lot of issues.

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Gina R Snape - Apr 3, 2005 6:06 pm (#346 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Y'know, I hadn't thought he'd seek revenge. But yeah, he has got a lot of issues and I think you might be right.

Also, I think the Ministry will see its role as wanting to protect the general wizarding public and do it's part to destroy Voldemort and his Death Eaters. But DD will see it as Harry's job, with the Order working behind the scenes to make sure things go down the best way possible. I think the most they (Ministry and Order) can hope for is that they can prevent as many torturings and killings as possible before the final battle.

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Puck - Apr 28, 2005 7:42 pm (#347 of 410)

Mommy, Queen of Everything
How to they come by the minister of Magic, anyway? That will make a big difference in who gets the post. Does the Wizangamit decide, a popular vote, what?

I do see Auther getting some kind of promotion. I know not to minister, but at least a bit more pay and a real office instead of sharing a closet.

Percy, wonder where he will land? I'm sure he'll have a position of some kind, but see him moving more laterally at this point.

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MickeyCee3948 - Apr 28, 2005 8:56 pm (#348 of 410)

Avatar courtesy of Gwen
Given Percy's history I wonder. He was Couch's assistant who could figure out there was something wrong with his boss.

Then he was Fudge's flunkee. That seems like 2 strikes to me. 3 strikes and hi's definitely out.

Mikie

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Gina R Snape - Apr 29, 2005 6:55 am (#349 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Yes, somehow I could easily see Percy winding up in the misfiled memos 'office' deeeep in the basement where the janitors never bothered to install weather windows.

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frogface - Apr 29, 2005 1:16 pm (#350 of 410)

Is that wishful thinking? :p

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Shake-up at the Ministry (Post 351 to 410)

Post  Elanor on Sat May 21, 2011 3:21 am

MickeyCee3948 - Apr 29, 2005 1:29 pm (#351 of 410)
Avatar courtesy of Gwen
frogface-Is that wishful thinking? :p Not on my part it isn't. I would rather see him come begging forgiveness from his family and Harry with his tail between his legs.

Mikie

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Puck - Apr 30, 2005 7:36 pm (#352 of 410)

Mommy, Queen of Everything
Well, I definately wouldn't give percy a job where he is privy to sensitive information. He is way too easily seduced by power. Although I don't really see him as a DE, I don't think the ministry wizards should trust him wholeheartedly. He'll have to earn that.

Personally, it would be great if he had to take orders from Arthur!

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frogface - May 1, 2005 5:30 am (#353 of 410)

Or even better, leaving the ministry and working for Fred and George! I don't see that happening (and if it did I don't see it lasting!) but it would be pretty brilliant!

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T Brightwater - May 1, 2005 7:53 am (#354 of 410)

Edited by Kip Carter Aug 28, 2005 4:40 am
Do you think Fred and George would have him? :-)

I still don't think it's impossible that Dolores the Toad could end up as Minister, though with Dumbledore reinstated in his various positions it seems less likely. Considering the fact that Crouch Sr. seems to have had a pretty high approval rating in VWI, it's possible that DJU could present her despicable tactics as exactly the sort of toughness that the WW needs. I don't know that we can count on wizards being more sensible or politically astute than Muggles.

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Gina R Snape - May 1, 2005 8:37 am (#355 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
I didn't get the sense at the end of OOtP that THE TOAD was capable of leading any longer. She seemed decidedly dazed and confused and fearful. I suspect whatever those centaurs did to her shook her up but good and made clear who can be the 'dominant species' in the right place at the right time.

I doubt Fred and George would have Percy, but that is a funny idea! If I were Arthur and Molly, I'd be more than a little bit wary about embracing Percy without reservation. Not that they shouldn't try to make amends, just that they should do so with one ear to the ground and both eyes wide open.

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Lina - May 1, 2005 3:15 pm (#356 of 410)

Kate's new T-shirt and henna tattoo
Well, I read a theory (some essay, I don't know on which site, I should look for it, but not now) that says that Percy could have been working for the Order, just that his parents didn't know about it and that his acting was just a cover to let the Order know what is going on at the Ministry. We know that there were more Order's spies at the Ministry and Percy was so close to Umbridge and he might have been one of them. I like the theory. It grounds on the letter that Percy wrote to Ron that had some sentences that imply that he talks against Harry just not to make Umbridge suspicious because he knows that she reads the letters, and Ron just didn't get it. Oh, as soon as I find it I will post the link, but in this light, Percy deserves a promotion. To young to be a Minister in my opinion though.

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MickeyCee3948 - May 1, 2005 3:36 pm (#357 of 410)

Avatar courtesy of Gwen
Lina that theory was on the lexicon but I can't remember which thread.

Mikie

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Gina R Snape - May 1, 2005 3:54 pm (#358 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Wow, and people think I wear rose-coloured glasses for Severus! It's plausible, I grant you, but highly improbable IMO.

Either way, he definitely won't wind up Minister for Magic in HbP. So I agree with you on that one!

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Puck - May 1, 2005 6:53 pm (#359 of 410)

Mommy, Queen of Everything
Gina, I'd much rather have Snape as Minister than Percy! Much less power hungry. I don't believe Percy clever enough for that kind of spy work. Besides, why wouldn't the other members of the Order know? They know what else is going on, who the other spies are. Fun theory, but I don't buy it.

So other than Amus, no real candidates for Minister? Some might push for DD, as before, but he won't leave Hogwarts. What about that Bones woman? She seemed like a decent choice.

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Lina - May 2, 2005 7:50 am (#360 of 410)

Kate's new T-shirt and henna tattoo
Here. I found it.Here is the link. I like the theory although, or maybe just because, it sounds so incredible. Anyway, appart from JKR, I'm sure that DD knows the truth and I believe and hope that he will have the crucial role in assigning the Ministry positions after the Shake-up. I'm not saying that no other Order member does know the truth, just that the Weasleys don't because they are too emotional to play the game correctly.

I agree that we saw Percy reading books about prefects who gained power, but it might not mean that he is power hungry in the same way. After all, it is not impossible that Voldemort is mentioned in that book as well, and it could have changed his prospective of power. Hm. Feel free to throw dungbombs, I'm under the table.

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Phelim Mcintyre - May 5, 2005 5:46 am (#361 of 410)

I vote that Percy ends up in the Centaur Liason Office.

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far from prefect - May 9, 2005 10:48 am (#362 of 410)

I've just read this entire thread (took a couple of days) and I can't believe that none of you caught the essential clue in GoF. It say who the next Minister of Magic will be!

It's Stan Shunpike!!!!!

Surprised) FFP

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T Brightwater - May 9, 2005 12:28 pm (#363 of 410)

LOL!! I'll believe that when Ron's broom makes it to Jupiter...

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Steve Newton - May 9, 2005 12:29 pm (#364 of 410)

Librarian
Hey, Stan said so. Are you calling him a liar?

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T Brightwater - May 9, 2005 2:18 pm (#365 of 410)

Would you hold a guy to something he said under the influence of a Veela?

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Tomoé - May 10, 2005 1:54 pm (#366 of 410)

Back in business
Can you refresh my memory, far from prefect, what was the clue?

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Steve Newton - May 10, 2005 2:12 pm (#367 of 410)

Librarian
At the Quidditch World Cup there is a brief sighting of Stan Shunpike talking to a Veela. He says that he is soon to become the youngest Minister for Magic.

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Tomoé - May 10, 2005 2:16 pm (#368 of 410)

Back in business
LOL! Stan! he sure have a long way to go, he'll need an excellent maketing manager at the very least. Politics has show weirdest cadidates, though ...

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T Brightwater - May 10, 2005 2:56 pm (#369 of 410)

Well, less intelligent people have been elected in the Muggle world...

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Tomoé - May 10, 2005 3:19 pm (#370 of 410)

Back in business
Yes, but they weren't unsupported, Stan need a good team to back him up.

edit: and he will also need money to pay them. Oh ... maybe he'll be the Death Eaters' cadidate.

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Joanne R. Reid - May 10, 2005 3:42 pm (#371 of 410)

Hi, Far from prefect,

LOL! I don't know how I missed that obvious clue.

Of course, I am serving my penance. I was found guilty of contamination from the films. I voluntarily agreed (Hee! Hee!) to reread all the HP books. Sigh! Alas!

Unfortunately for me, I am only completing PoA at this time. Otherwise I might have made a similar observation.

Regardless, full credit goes to you. Well Done!

Accio! Half-blood Prince!

Thanks

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Steve Newton - May 10, 2005 5:54 pm (#372 of 410)

Librarian
Well, Stan probably has saved his tips and now has quite a campaign fund.

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Netherlandic - May 25, 2005 1:46 pm (#373 of 410)

He surely can visit a lot of places in a short time with that bus to visit his potential voters LOL

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applepie - May 25, 2005 1:54 pm (#374 of 410)

"Always forgive your enemies; nothing annoys them so much." -- Oscar Wilde
He can't be much worse than Fudge.

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Thom Matheson - Jul 10, 2005 1:59 pm (#375 of 410)

Does that mean that Ernie will be the next Under Secretary? replacing Umbridge?

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Kip Carter - Aug 2, 2005 11:31 am (#376 of 410)

co-Host with Steve on the Lexicon Forum, but he has the final say as the Owner!
This thread was closed down during the sixteen day period surrounding the release of Book Six. It is now opened for posts.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Aug 2, 2005 11:55 am (#377 of 410)

The appointment of Scrimgeour as MoM seems to indicate that despite all outward appearances. The Ministry's attitutde is one of business as usual. Although, I must admit I was impressed by Fudge refusing to give into Voldemort's demands that he step aside in favor of Voldemort that took a great deal of courage especially in light of the fact that stronger older and wiser witches and wizards have fallen fighting Voldemort.

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Ms Amanda - Aug 5, 2005 5:08 pm (#378 of 410)

I think that is one excellent way to prove to the readers that Fudge is not a closet DE. Actually, I was quite surprized not to hear that Fudge had been found murdered, after this quite unusually courageous refusal.

Yes, I know that Voldemort had a revenge quite nicely planned, as he used it as blackmail, but I still was surprised not to hear something more personal to Fudge had happened.

And the appointment of Scrimgeour shows me that, quite like Percy, the Ministry is not quite able to forgive those who were right and found it easier to forgive those who were wrong. And I found it amusing that Scrimgeour said he thought Harry should be "more involved" when really he meant that he wants the Ministry to be involved. Scrimgeour, to me, seems to want control over the capture of a very disturbing criminal element. Since it is obvious that he has no control, he wants very much to have the appearance of control. It's quite shocking that the only methods he's come up with so far have been such dismal failures. The pamphlets sent out are easy to see through. Dumbledore hexed Dawlish again. Harry won't cooperate. The arrests are false and at least some people see through them.

What will the next shake-up be? Where will the Ministry go from here? No one feels safe, and Dumbledore is dead. We have seen how the Ministry reacts to pressure like that. To what depths will they sink now?

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Nathan Zimmermann - Aug 5, 2005 5:23 pm (#379 of 410)

I think the next shake up will involve the elimination of Scrimgeour because of his similarity to Crouch, and the targeting of more Order members within tthe ministry. I see Shacklebolt and Arthur as being prime targets for an assassination attempt.

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Lina - Oct 20, 2005 2:14 pm (#380 of 410)

Kate's new T-shirt and henna tattoo
Well, it seems to me that there was not at all a shake-up at the Ministry. It seems that the Ministry doesn't really like shake-ups, they like only the appearance that something has changed.

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T Brightwater - Oct 21, 2005 6:41 am (#381 of 410)

True, Lina - very realistic, isn't it?

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Lina - Oct 21, 2005 3:41 pm (#382 of 410)

Kate's new T-shirt and henna tattoo
Maybe even too realistic for a fairy tale...

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Gina R Snape - Oct 25, 2005 7:00 am (#383 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
I can't help but wonder if something might happen with the PM after all, considering he's got an auror for a secretary. It felt more like DD's doing than the Ministry's.

I thought it was interesting that they kept Fudge on as a consultant when he had failed SO spectacularly. I thought for sure he was going to be fleeing from a mob.

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ex-FAHgeek - Oct 25, 2005 10:22 am (#384 of 410)

Edited by Oct 25, 2005 10:27 am
---quote--- I thought it was interesting that they kept Fudge on as a consultant when he had failed SO spectacularly. I thought for sure he was going to be fleeing from a mob. ---end quote---

Perhaps they wanted him on hand so they could ask him what he would do in such-and-such a situation and then do the exact opposite?

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haymoni - Oct 25, 2005 11:09 am (#385 of 410)

Fudge had been MOM for several years. It wouldn't be wise to just toss him out of there.

Fudge could handle the day-to-day tasks that Rufus, a man of action, would hate.

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Lina - Oct 25, 2005 1:06 pm (#386 of 410)

Kate's new T-shirt and henna tattoo
But the point is that Rufus didn't show too much action, unless the action included putting harmless people into jail. The Ministry acted exactly as if they were taking Fudges advices.

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haymoni - Oct 25, 2005 1:22 pm (#387 of 410)

No - I meant that since he was an Auror, he was a man of action - he isn't a paper-pusher kind of guy. Fudge was a politician. They'll use him for the schmoozy kinds of things.

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ex-FAHgeek - Oct 26, 2005 1:53 pm (#388 of 410)

---quote--- I meant that since he was an Auror, he was a man of action - he isn't a paper-pusher kind of guy. Fudge was a politician. They'll use him for the schmoozy kinds of things. ---end quote---

Agreed - this is also why people like Percy should be kept around no matter who's in charge. He's so desperate to please that even if you give him the most tedious drudge-work, you'll still get a flawless cauldron-bottom report (and regardless of the current political atmosphere, well-done paperwork is a must. How can you know what to doctor later if the original isn't completed to perfection?) I don't think any of us need to worry about Percy ending up in a position where he's making decisions, but as a paper-pusher he'll be valuable to any official in the Ministry no matter what their affiliation/agenda.

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wynnleaf - Oct 26, 2005 6:14 pm (#389 of 410)

and regardless of the current political atmosphere, well-done paperwork is a must. How can you know what to doctor later if the original isn't completed to perfection?

LOL! That's great! Percy has a job for life, no matter who's in charge!

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Honour - Oct 27, 2005 4:20 pm (#390 of 410)

I also find it strange that Shaklebolt was taken out of the equation, especially at a tumultuous time as this, was it done on purpose? Does Rufus suspect that Shaklebolts' handling of Sirius' case was less than perfect? Is there a genuine threat against the muggle PM by Voldermort? Seems strange that a muggle MP would be put under a curse, was he actually a muggle?

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Gina R Snape - Nov 7, 2005 8:18 pm (#391 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
I think Shacklebolt wound up with the PM because someone at the Ministry knew or strongly suspected his ties to Dumbledore and the Order. But I do also still suspect DD had something up his sleeve as well with that appointment.

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Nathan Zimmermann - Nov 11, 2005 12:17 pm (#392 of 410)

Could the positioning of Shacklebolt with the PM been a maneuver to keep Shacklebolt from being sacked as an auror.

To use an analogy from World War II could Shacklebolt be like Chennault or Patton like figure, in that allthough his conduct is not akways approved of by his superiors, they cannot afford to dismiss him because, he is a capable and competent fighter.

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TomProffitt - Dec 4, 2005 5:34 pm (#393 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
When I look at the behavior of the Ministry over the course of the series I see one thing rather clearly. The Ministry does not do "What I would do" nor do they do "What they should do." They do what politicians inevitably seem to do, they form their policy based on maintaining their position as primus over actually getting the job done.

Jo, has uncannily placed her finger on the pulse of true politics. While I'm not exactly sure why some of the characters have done certain things, I am certain of Jo's attitude about politics and politicians.

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T Brightwater - Dec 6, 2005 4:10 pm (#394 of 410)

Hey Tom, good to hear from you again!

The arrest of Stan Shunpike is a classic example of what you're talking about: Make it look like you're doing something even if it's absurd to anyone who thinks about it for more than 15 seconds.

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Gina R Snape - Dec 8, 2005 9:43 am (#395 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Yes, and that's been fairly consistent. They took Hagrid in CoS so they could look like they were doing something as well.

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ex-FAHgeek - Dec 8, 2005 2:48 pm (#396 of 410)

I always felt that they took Hagrid in CoS because the only reason he wasn't sent to Azkaban for Myrtle's murder 50 years prior was because Dumbledore cut a deal with the Ministry.

Essentially, releasing the monster of the Chamber again was like breaking parole... at least since practically everyone except Dumbledore (and, of course, Tom Riddle) was fully convinced that Hagrid had been the one to open the Chamber the first time.

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TomProffitt - Dec 8, 2005 4:02 pm (#397 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
"I always felt that they took Hagrid in CoS because the only reason he wasn't sent to Azkaban for Myrtle's murder 50 years prior was because Dumbledore cut a deal with the Ministry." --- ex-FAHgeek

In the Hagrid arrest it seems clear that there was no interest in an investigation. No thought paid to whether or not Hagrid was capable of doing the magic required. Hagrid's an imposing figure, but not the best with a wand, really.

Fudge's position in this whole mess was quite pathetic. "Alright Dumbledore, you want your Gamekeeper back, then prove he's innocent. And, should anything else happen we'll sack you and close the school."

Fudge seems to have forgotten that it was his responsibility, whether indirectly or directly to provide for the safe education of the the wizarding world's students. He may have delegated that task to Dumbledore (via the School Governors) but it was still his responsibility.

And now it seems that Scrimgeour has done the same thing. "Alright Dumbledore, we're going to keep locking up innocent people until you can solve this problem for us."

Pathetic.

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ex-FAHgeek - Dec 8, 2005 8:11 pm (#398 of 410)

Edited by Dec 8, 2005 7:19 pm
---quote--- He may have delegated that task to Dumbledore (via the School Governors) but it was still his responsibility. ---end quote---

Actually, no it wasn't - that was why Malfoy and the (blackmailed) governers were able to overrule him when Fudge said that removing Dumbledore from his post was the last thing they wanted. Fudge had no control over any decisions at the school (and no doubt the memory of such was a factor, subconscious or otherwise, in the educational decrees that we would see three years later.)

Fudge didn't delegate anything: he wasn't given a say in how the school was run, period.

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frogface - Dec 9, 2005 2:36 am (#399 of 410)

They were deffinatly using Hagrid as a scapegoat, even Fudge says "got to be seen to be doing something." You can't get much clearer than that.

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TomProffitt - Dec 9, 2005 6:45 am (#400 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
"Fudge didn't delegate anything: he wasn't given a say in how the school was run, period." --- ex-FAHgeek

I don't dispute that Fudge had no actual direct power to do anything. I think it is implied that the responsibility for the education of the youth of the wizarding world ultimately lies with the Minister for Magic. We have seen (with the appointment of Umbridge to the school, and her various subsequent powers) that Fudge did have the authority and power to intervene after some fashion. It's an indirect power, but it does exist.

My point, however, has not been to comment on what Fudge could or could not have done, but to use the examples of his and Scrimgeour's records to point out how we can form a reasonable supposition as to Jo's feelings about politics and politicians.

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T Brightwater - Dec 9, 2005 1:11 pm (#401 of 410)

Here's Fudge in CoS:

"Hagrid's record's against him. Ministry's got to do something – the school governors have been in touch –"

In this instance the school governors have given him the authority to intervene. I wonder how he managed to override them in OotP.

"Look at it from my point of view. I'm under a lot of pressure. Got to be seen doing something. If it turns out it wasn't Hagrid, he'll be back and no more said."

In other words, as far as Fudge is concerned, the appearance of "doing something" is the highest priority. And he's got no qualms at all about possibly throwing an innocent person to the Dementors.

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TomProffitt - Dec 9, 2005 1:15 pm (#402 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
"In other words, as far as Fudge is concerned, the appearance of 'doing something' is the highest priority." --- T Brightwater

Bingo, T! That's the Ministry through out the series. (And politics in general through out the history of democracy, IMO)

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T Brightwater - Dec 9, 2005 1:20 pm (#403 of 410)

Not limited to democracy, either, IMO...

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TomProffitt - Dec 9, 2005 2:17 pm (#404 of 410)

Bullheaded empiricist
Probably not, T. But I don't think Joe Stalin worried too much about appearances.

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timrew - Dec 9, 2005 6:42 pm (#405 of 410)

Middle-aged Harry Potter fan
frogface:- They were deffinatly using Hagrid as a scapegoat, even Fudge says "got to be seen to be doing something."

.......as any government anywhere gets it wrong; and arrests the wrong guy; just to be said that they've "done something". I won't put in here what I think of politicians............this is a family forum.

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Gina R Snape - Dec 9, 2005 8:57 pm (#406 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
I can't help but wonder of Hagrid and Stan Shunpike can't receive some sort of retribution for wrongful imprisonment. I mean, Azkaban isn't just a prison. It's a genuine living torture chamber. Well, I suppose with Stan it's different than Hagrid because the dementors are no longer guarding the prison. Right?

Of course, Hagrid regained the right to carry a wand. That's pretty darn significant.

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Thom Matheson - Dec 14, 2005 8:23 pm (#407 of 410)

Gina when did Hagrid get his wand back? Officially anyway. Also back in CoS, I was under the impression that because Hagrid was a minor and a student the max punishment was expulsion. I'm thinking that he was too young to go to Azcaban.

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Gina R Snape - Dec 14, 2005 8:39 pm (#408 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Thom, we didn't get to see Hagrid being told he could have his wand back. But JKR confirmed it in an interview.

And yeah, I'm guessing the MoM might find Azkaban too severe for a student. I can't recall how old Hagrid was at the time, but I think he was not older than 15. Tom Riddle was 15 at the time, at any rate. I don't think Hagrid is older than Tom.

ETA: According to the Lexicon Hagrid was born in December 1928 and Tom Riddle in 1927. So he was 14 in June 1943 when he was expelled.

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Thom Matheson - Dec 15, 2005 9:31 pm (#409 of 410)

Thanks for that Gina. I ws thinking about this when I remembered the scene with Harry about the hut burning and Harry having to say what the spell was to make water to put the fire out. Then having Hagrid say thanks and they proceed to put the fire out like it was no big deal. Kind of an "Oh, ok lets". Too funny

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Gina R Snape - Dec 16, 2005 1:21 pm (#410 of 410)

"The world isn't split into good people and death eaters"
Heh, heh. Oh, yeah. I forgot about that! I wonder of Hagrid has ever thought to ask Flitwick and McG for private lessons on the side.

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